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December 10, 2014 --- Vol. 20, No. 65December 2014

Revenue forecast reflects price down, volume up

Total state revenue was $17.2 billion in fiscal year 2014, with general fund unrestricted revenue of $5.4 billion, the Alaska Department of Revenue said this afternoon in releasing the Revenue Sources Book Fall 2014.

"This fall revenue forecast reflects two major changes from prior forecasts that will impact near term revenue," Acting Commissioner Marcia Davis said in a statement.

The department is anticipating higher production in the near term, she said.

"North Slope oil production between FY 2013 and FY 2014 held steady, and it is expected to increase by approximately 15,000 barrels per day and 10,000 barrels per day in FY 2016 and 2017, following decline of 22,000 barrels per day in FY 2016," Davis said.

"Given the forecast in investment trends, we expect that oil production should remain above 500,000 barrels per day for the next three fiscal years."

However, oil prices are significantly lower than previously forecast for the near term, she said, down 40 percent to less than $65 per barrel from $110 per barrel in July.

Based on lower oil price forecasts, "we expect unrestricted revenue of $2.6 billion and $2.2 billion for FY 2015 and FY 2016, respectively," Davis said.

"After FY 2016, we believe that oil prices will recover above $90 per barrel and remain higher throughout our forecast period to FY 2024."

- KRISTEN NELSON

See story in Dec. 14 issue, available online Friday, Dec. 12 at www.PetroleumNews.com

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