An Arctic windfall

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If the Mackenzie Gas Project goes ahead it could pump C$27 billion in direct and spin-off benefits into the Canadian economy over the next 25 years — a small fraction of the projected C$3.1 trillion that could flow from the total Canadian hydrocarbon sector, a new study estimates.

The Canadian Energy Research Institute has released preliminary figures from a report due to be released later in June that is designed to counter the spate of negative criticism on the industry’s environmental effects.

CERI, financed by governments and the industry, figures it’s time to show how much petroleum investment can generate in construction and operating benefits for Canada’s 10 provinces and three territories.

Easily topping the list is oil sands development in Alberta, which CERI figures could contribute C$1.43 trillion.

The other leading generators are conventional gas in Alberta at C$914 billion, British Columbia’s Horn River and Montney shale gas plays at C$279 billion, conventional oil in Alberta at C$134 billion, coalbed methane in Alberta at C$117 billion and conventional gas in British Columbia at C$109 billion.

CERI Vice President Peter Howard said the report is “intended to take a look at, in very fine detail, the entire industry” across Canada.

He said CERI estimates there is C$218 billion worth of investment poised to go ahead in the oil sands over the next 16 years, although some of the cancelled projects may not proceed until after 2017.

The Montney and Horn River plays are projected to contribute C$54 million to drilling and tie-in and C$225 billion to Canada’s overall economy, of which British Columbia will capture C$205 billion.

Howard said the figures could be even higher if natural gas prices prompt the industry to drill even more vigorously.

—Gary Park