What comes down goes up

The drive by Canadian oil sands producers to reduce their carbon emissions has made headway with per-barrel output from in-situ projects dropping by 15 percent in 2009 from 2008 and from mining projects by 18 percent in 2008 from 2007.

That was the positive spin derived from figures compiled by Evaluate Energy, a London-based source of energy information.

The flip side showed that the rapid growth in production levels also boosted overall emissions by 45 percent in the 2004-2009 period to 44 million metric tons, a total that will continue climbing as production ramps up.

“On a micro level, they have been bringing (greenhouse gas emissions) down, but on a macro level the only direction emissions are going is up,” said Chris Wilson, an analyst with Evaluate Energy.

He said that despite the progress being made by producers on a per-unit basis “there aren’t going to be any emissions reductions now or realistically any time soon. I don’t think this will be acceptable to environmental groups.”

Wilson said further reduction gains are possible with the use of new thermal-recovery technologies such as solvent injection and large-scale carbon capture and storage.

Greg Stringham, vice president of oil sands at the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, told the Calgary Herald that, even in a worst-case scenario, the oil sands will account for about 9 percent of Canada’s overall GHG emissions, compared with 5 percent at present.

However, he said that technologies that are just being brought into full-scale use will continue to drive down the per-barrel intensity of emissions.

“Over the long term, it is wise policy to put a foot in the camp of an industry that is focused on performance enhancement,” Stringham argued.

A study by CanOils, the Canadian division of Evaluate Energy, estimated that integrated producers (those who both extract and upgrade bitumen) lowered their average carbon dioxide emissions to 123 kilograms per barrel of synthetic crude in 2009 against 150 kilograms in 2008, while in-situ emissions dropped to 93 kilograms in 2008 from 110 kilograms in 2007.

—Gary Park