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Arctic future fuels present-day debate Will climate change enable a rush for resources or make shipping conditions too hazardous? Researchers speculate in new report By Sarah Hurst For Petroleum News
Indigenous Canadians supply Arctic water to drought-stricken Tripoli and Abu Dhabi. A Chinese frigate escorting LNG tankers from the Kara Sea across the Northern Sea Route to Beijing fires across the bow of a Japanese patrol vessel, almost triggering a Pacific war. An aging oil tanker spills nearly 500,000 barrels of crude off the coast of Iceland. These are a few of the possibilities dreamed up by a team of Arctic researchers who have produced four scenarios for the future of Arctic marine navigation.
The scenarios are described in a report prepared by the Arctic Council’s Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment working group. The purpose of the report is to highlight plausible future trends and occurrences so that present-day planning decisions can be more effective. All the scenarios assume continued global climate change that results in significantly less Arctic ice cover, at least in the summer, throughout the 2030s and 2040s.
In the “Arctic Race” scenario the Arctic is rife with political and economic tensions, while its environment is despoiled by carelessness. Russia’s actions in this scenario include developing the Shtokman natural gas field in the Barents Sea, signing an energy deal with China (while reducing oil and gas exports to the EU), and passing an “Arctic Development Law” to attract more qualified labor to the north, paying relocation costs, which results in poorly planned communities and congestion. With so many nations competing in the region, by 2050 experts agree that if there is going to be a world war in the 21st century, it will most likely be sparked in the open summer waters of the Arctic Ocean.
Oversight is one option In “Arctic Saga,” Arctic resources are developed quickly but with international oversight. Populations migrate northwards to work on infrastructure projects and the ports of Nanisivik, Kirkenes and Murmansk are nicknamed “Zinc City,” “Cargo Town” and “Petro-burg”. By early 2025, the traffic along the coast of Norway from the northwest of Russia is 20 times the volume of 2005. The Arctic becomes a hub of activity for transportation and resource development.
“Polar Lows” foresees the main events in the world economy taking place outside the Arctic. When the last polar bear dies in 2034, hardly anyone notices as they are too busy with regional conflicts to pay attention to the far north. Fragmenting ice has created increased hazards to navigation and made oil exploration and development too tricky. The Arctic’s 15 minutes of fame peaked back in 2010.
In “Polar Preserve,” regulation and sustainability are the key principles for international administration of the Arctic. An Arctic Preservation Treaty, signed by most of the world’s nations in 2030, draws clear boundaries in the Arctic and establishes the “Polar Police.” Marine activity is strictly controlled and Russia postpones development of Shtokman because it seems too risky. By the 2040s advanced green technology makes development projects more appealing and the debate about them is renewed.
For more insights into the future of the Arctic, see the full report online at http://arcticportal.org/amsa.
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