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State expects to collect $5.6B in fiscal year 2010
Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
The Alaska Department of Revenue is projecting the state will collect $5.6 billion in unrestricted revenue in fiscal year 2010 and $5.3 billion in FY 2011.
The spring revenue forecast, released April 9, is an increase from the fall forecast, which projected unrestricted revenues of $4.8 billion for FY 2010 and $5.2 billion for FY 2011. The February interim forecast projected $5.4 billion for FY 2010.
The state’s production tax revenue was $3.112 billion for FY 2009 and is forecast to be $2.943 billion for FY 2010 and $2.492 billion for FY 2011. Based on historic and estimated production volumes, the tax per taxable barrel was $14.20 for FY 2009 and is estimated to be $14.50 for FY 2010 and $13 for FY 2011.
The department is now forecasting that Alaska North Slope crude oil prices will be $75.32 per barrel in FY 2010 and $77.65 per barrel in FY 2011, compared to $66.93 and $76.35 respectively in the fall 2009 forecast.
ANS crude is expected to trade at a differential of $2.50 below West Texas Intermediate for the remainder of FY 2010 and FY 2011, the department said.
Economies assumed to improve Revenue from oil and gas production is expected to provide more than 88 percent of the state’s unrestricted revenue through FY 2019.
ANS oil production is forecast at approximately 650,000 barrels per day in FY 2010, a 6.2 percent decline from FY 2009.
The department said its forecast assumes economies in the U.S. and other developed nations will gradually improve, strengthening demand for petroleum products and “encouraging a robust oil price economy.”
Spending on the North Slope is expected to continue at or above the current levels, the department said, with a slight increase expected for FY 2011. Lease expenditures are forecast to be $4.6 billion this fiscal year and $5.1 billion in FY 2011. The department said this is a slight increase in expected spending from the fall forecast, which showed $4.5 billion for FY 2011 and $5 billion for FY 2011.
Lease expenditure data for FY 2010 and FY 2011 come from expenditure forecast estimates from companies and other data submitted to the department.
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