ANGDA model for future Railbelt gas demand

The Alaska Natural Gas Development Authority has commissioned a spreadsheet model of future natural gas demand in the Alaska Railbelt.

“We have a … publicly available model of a quality that we think is good enough that it would certainly satisfy a regulatory application or anything like that,” ANGDA CEO Harold Heinze told the ANGDA board on May 9.

“What we want to do is put together a demand projection based on all the credible information that we know today,” Tony Izzo, the consultant who developed the model, told the board. That information can be altered to reflect changing circumstance in the gas market, he said.

“As we go forward we can change the numbers in the spreadsheet and be current to whatever day you want, based on the information that you have on that day,” Heinze said.

Unlike other models of gas demand, this new model groups the demand by the entities such as individual power utilities, that use the gas, rather than using broad categories such as general power demand. In that way, it is possible to assess the impact of a utility, for example, switching in or out of some natural gas usage.

In assembling the model, Izzo pulled information from a range of public sources, such as Regulatory Commission of Alaska filings. However, uncertainties regarding the future operation of the Kenai Peninsula LNG and fertilizer plants forced Izzo to assume for the time being that the demand for industrial gas will continue at the average level established over the period 2000 to 2005.

Based on the available data, the model predicts a total demand of 250 billion cubic feet in 2025. But Izzo thinks that is a conservative estimate.

“We think it’s likely going to be more,” Izzo said.

—Alan Bailey