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ExxonMobil expects rising energy demand
Asia’s amazing growth over the last decade or so is likely to continue after a brief speed bump for the 2009 recession. That’s the conclusion of ExxonMobil’s newly released “Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030.”
In that report, issued Dec. 8, the company says it expects natural gas consumption in Asia to reach around 110 billion cubic feet a day by 2030, up nearly fourfold from the 30 bcf per day in 2000.
Exxon expects to ramp up LNG production from its own projects and affiliates from the current 35 million metric tons annually to about 100 million metric tons a year (equivalent to 4.6 trillion cubic feet, or roughly 13 billion cubic feet daily). That’s equal to a couple Alaska gas pipelines at 6 bcf daily.
According to Exxon’s outlook, natural gas demand worldwide will grow 55 percent by 2030, compared with 2005, an average annual rate of 1.8 percent. All of that growth will come from increased demand by developing countries, according to Exxon’s estimates.
Energy demand to rise Demand for electricity in developing countries such as China and India will double by 2030, and overall energy demand will increase by 60 percent in those nations as the world adds 1.3 billion souls to the current population of 6.7 billion and living standards rise in poorer nations, Exxon figures.
Electric generation will soak up 40 percent of the energy consumed in 2030, far more than industrial demand, transportation, and residential/commercial demand, in that order.
Economic activity will rise 50 percent in the developed nations, Exxon estimates, but energy conservation will improve enough to keep demand steady at current levels.
Overall world energy demand will be 35 percent higher in 2030, the company predicts, as oil demand rises 0.8 percent annually and coal consumption 0.5 percent. Nuclear and renewables will have larger increases, but from a small base, and fossil fuel will remain the source for 80 percent of the world’s energy.
The report is available through the ExxonMobil Web site at www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Files/news_pub_eo_2009.pdf.
—Allen Baker
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