Canada good on gas for a century CSUG: Low and high case projections are two to four times greater than previous estimates; include shale gas but not hydrates Gary Park For Petroleum News
Canada could be sitting on 4,000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas – a motherlode that has been “dramatically” changed by the emergence of shale and tight gas and would be sufficient to meet domestic needs for another 100 years, according to data compiled by the Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas, or CSUG.
The analysis, covering Canada from coast-to-coast, includes conventional and unconventional resources and estimates the market portion at 700 trillion to 1,300 trillion cubic feet.
“The magnitude of these numbers may blow you away,” said CSUG president Mike Dawson.
“We have an awful lot of natural gas potential lying within the country.”
Of its projected marketable gas, CSUG said 357 tcf is conventional and between 376 tcf and 947 tcf is unconventional.
Shale gas, which is still in its infancy in Canada, is believed to account for 128 tcf to 343 tcf, tight gas 215 tcf to 476 tcf and coalbed methane at 34 tcf to 129 tcf.
According to the report, gas in place by resource type is: Conventional, 692 tcf; coalbed methane, 801 tcf; tight gas, 1,311 tcf; and shale gas, 1,111 tcf.
Gas hydrates were not included.
The low and high case projections are double to four times greater than previous estimates.
Canada currently produces about 5 to 6 tcf of gas a year, consuming 2.6 tcf domestically and exporting the rest to the United States.
Dawson said Canada’s gas resource potential has previously been “all over the map. As far as we know, this is the first time all these numbers have been put in one place.”
He said the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, or WCSB, which extends from northern Canada into British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, retains the lion’s share of the resources, noting that the WCSB has 482 tcf of the 692 tcf of conventional gas in place.
Not all convention plays delineated Dawson said those who think the WCSB is a “bit tired and declining” should understand the tremendous potential of conventional resources that are still available in the region.
He said the numbers will almost certainly increase because CSUG’s assessment does not include some plays the industry is “only now beginning to tinker with.”
Dawson said the numbers don’t include the Duvernay, Montney, Horn River, Liard and Mackenzie Valley plays in Alberta, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories; the deep thermogenic Colorado group of shales in western Alberta, the bulk of the St. Lawrence Lowlands in Quebec; the Central Maritimes Basin in the Gulf of St. Lawrence with an onshore component in New Brunswick and the southern tip of Newfoundland.
Report supports greening of fossil fuels The report gives added weight to an industry campaign to use gas to displace dirtier fuel sources such as coal and oil.
Dawson said that if the industry can persuade even 5 percent of the Canadian heavy vehicle fleet to switch to gas, demand will rise by 53 billion cubic feet per year.
He said efforts also are under way to persuade power generators to switch from coal to gas (which produces half the greenhouse gas emissions for the same output,) noting a recent U.S. study also estimates there is sufficient gas in that country to meet demand for another 100 years.
“The North American market has an awful lot of gas and there’s going to be continued pressure on natural gas pricing, barring any kind of significant growth in demand,” he said.
To develop its numbers, CSUG first commissioned Petrel Robertson Consulting to summarize the range of assessment of Canada’s gas resource base, which it then converted into a total marketable resource.
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