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EIA sees sharp rise in gas exports Increasing production and lower prices are expected to drive LNG exports to 3.5 tcf by 2030 with help from Alaska project Eric Lidji For Petroleum News
The federal government expects natural gas exports to rise in the coming decades.
Liquefied natural gas exports could reach 3.5 trillion cubic feet by 2030 with the help of an Alaska natural gas project, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The estimate comes from the reference case of the Annual Energy Outlook 2014, which the statistical arm of the Department of Energy has released in an abridged form.
The full report is due out next spring.
The reference case expects LNG exports to increase through 2025 when an Alaska project would come online, plateau at 3.5 tcf in 2030 when an Alaska project peaks, and maintain at that level through 2040, the end of the period considered in the report.
The report also expects natural exports by pipeline to increase.
The EIA expects exports to Mexico to grow 6 percent each year from 0.6 tcf in 2012 to 3.1 tcf in 2040 and exports to Canada to grow 1.2 percent each year from 1 tcf in 2012 to 1.4 tcf in 2040. Canadian imports are expected to fall 30 percent during that time.
The reference case forecasts energy trends under current laws and regulations.
The full report will include alternative cases showing how exports might change under various price and economic environments, and compared to various alternative fuels.
Gas and oil split The report expects domestic production to grow significantly.
The EIA sees oil production growing 800,000 barrels per day through 2016 to a total of 9.5 million bpd, which would approach the historic highs from the 1970s.
The forecast expects domestic oil production to slowly decline after 2020, but expects natural gas production to grow 56 percent between 2012 and 2040 to 37.6 tcf.
The growth in gas production and associated low prices are expected to increase industrial shipments by 3 percent over 10 years and 1.6 percent through 2040. The shipments are expected to be largely bulk chemicals and metals-based durables.
The EIA expects gas to overtake coal as the primary power generation fuel in the country by 2040, with 35 percent of electricity coming from gas and 32 percent from coal.
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