|
US crude projected at 6.3 million bpd EIA expects 6.8 million bpd in 2013, highest level since 1993, with growth primarily from Bakken, Permian Basin, Eagle Ford areas Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is projecting domestic crude oil production to average 6.33 million barrels per day this year, up from 5.65 million bpd in 2011.
Crude oil production in the Lower 48, excluding the federal Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to grow by some 790,000 bpd, with the increase “primarily from the Bakken, Permian Basin and Eagle Ford producing areas,” the agency said in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Crude production is expected to grow by an additional 520,000 bpd in 2013, to some 6.8 million bpd, “the highest level of production since 1993,” EIA said.
The agency said the number of oil directed drilling rigs as reported by Baker Hughes is up from 777 at the beginning of 2011. The count grew to 1,191 at the beginning of the year, to 1,414 in June, and has since remained near 1,400.
Imports down EIA said the share of U.S. consumption met by imports of crude and products has been falling since peaking at more than 60 percent in 2005, averaging 45 percent in 2011, down from 49 percent in 2010.
“EIA expects that the total net import share of consumption will continue to decline to 41 percent in 2012 and to 39 percent in 2013 because of the substantial increases in domestic crude oil production. If the 2013 forecast holds true, it would be the first time the share of total U.S. consumption met by liquid fuel net imports is less than 40 percent since 1991,” the agency said.
Crude, natural gas prices The West Texas Intermediate crude oil price is expected to average $89 per barrel in the fourth quarter, EIA said, down about $4 a barrel from its October outlook.
Brent crude is expected to average about $1 less than the October forecast, some $110 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
“The projected WTI discount to Brent crude oil, which averaged $22 per barrel in October 2012, falls to an average of $11 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2013,” EIA said, with WTI forecast to average $88 per barrel in 2013, and Brent $103.
The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is expected to average $2.77 per million Btu this year, down from $4 per million Btu in 2011. EIA said it expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $3.49 next year.
Natural gas EIA said it expects domestic natural gas consumption to average 69.7 billion cubic feet per day this year, up 3.2 bcf per day from 2011.
“Large gains in electric power use in 2012 more than offset declines in residential and commercial use,” the agency said.
Natural gas consumption is projected to decrease by 0.5 bcf per day next year, with declines expected in the electric power sector offsetting increases in residential, commercial and industrial consumption.
Total marketed production of natural gas grew by 4.8 bcf per day in 2011, EIA said, forecasting growth to slow this year, with 2013 near 2012 levels.
There was strong upward growth from 2009 to 2011, the agency said, but this year production has “fluctuated slightly” around an average of 69 bcf per day. EIA said it expects small declines in natural gas production in the coming months related to recent reported drops in the natural gas rig count, which Baker Hughes put at 424 on Nov. 2, compared with 811 at the beginning of the year.
The agency said it “expects that growth in associated gas from crude oil, as well as continued drilling in liquids-rich areas, will help offset the decline in drilling activity.”
Gas imports down Pipeline gross imports are expected to fall by 0.2 bcf per day this year, “as domestic supply continues to displace Canadian sources.”
Liquefied natural gas imports are expected to fall by about one-half this year from 2011, with an average of slightly less than 0.5 bcf per day expected to arrive in the U.S. mainly at the Elba Island terminal in Georgia and the Everett terminal in New England this year and next, EIA said, “either to fulfill long-term contract obligations or to take advantage of temporarily high local prices due to cold snaps and disruptions. Higher prices for LNG, particularly in Asian markets, have made the United States a market of last resort for LNG suppliers. Even as natural gas prices are expected to rise in the United States next year, prices in Japanese and Korean markets have historically been much higher.”
| 