Canada lags behind emissions target

The Canadian government will fall far short of its own 2020 target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent from 2006 levels, the government’s own energy regulator predicts.

Even with bold measures to lower energy demand, widespread acceptance of demand efficiency and fuel-switching strategies, Canada’s GHGs will drop by just 0.1 percent annually over the period 2005-30.

As a result, the National Energy Board estimates, GHGs will be 722 million metric tonnes by 2020, 5.2 percent above the goal of 686 million metric tonnes set by the government.

However, the board notes that the steady decline, resulting mostly from the phasing out of older, coal-fired power plants, will see Canada reduce its GHGs for the first time after many years of promises.

The NEB excluded from its calculations the GHG reductions that could result from forestry or agricultural practices, or from the purchase of credits on the international market — a combination of which “could go a long way in contributing to Canada meeting its target of 20 percent by 2020.”

The NEB study said there has been an “unprecedented level of activity” in recent times by federal and provincial governments to tackle energy and environmental policies.

But the challenge is considerable, given that Canada’s GHG emissions rose by 26 percent between 1990 and 2004, resulting from several factors, including increasing population and economic growth.

As a result, Canadians are “beginning to recognize a personal responsibility for environmental action … (which) is driving more robust policies and programs.”

The study said policy developments at both federal and provincial levels “constitute important steps in the achievement of Canada’s energy and environment objectives ... developments that are still a work-in-progress,” with not all provinces and sectors on the same page.

“It is important to note that significant uncertainty exists over how consumers and technology will react to energy demand management and GHG emission policies,” the NEB said.

For instance, it said the emerging technology to capture carbon dioxide emissions from power plants, refineries and oil sands upgraders could contribute significantly to Canada’s climate change fight.

The construction of a pipeline to pipe CO2 to aging oil fields, where the gas would be injected underground to stimulate production, could reduce emissions by 3.6 percent by 2030, trimming overall emissions to 719 million metric tonnes from 746 million metric tonnes.

—Gary Park