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Harnessing wind for Alaska Railbelt With oil and gas prices soaring and wind turbine technologies reaching maturity, is it time to add wind power to the energy mix? Alan Bailey Petroleum News
It’s been several years since the idea of establishing a wind farm on Fire Island near Anchorage, Alaska, was first floated. And, with increasing natural gas prices and concerns about future gas supplies, people are now taking a keen interest in the flat energy pricing that comes from wind energy, Steve Gilbert, Alaska projects manager for EnXco, told Petroleum News Jan. 15.
“There is a great deal of interest in that here in the (Alaska) Railbelt,” Gilbert said.
EnXco, a company that specializes in the design, development and operation of wind power, has partnered with Native regional corporation CIRI to form a joint venture, Wind Energy Alaska, to pursue the development of wind power and potentially other forms of renewable energy in Alaska. Wind Energy Alaska’s interests include the Fire Island proposal — CIRI is the majority landowner on Fire Island.
NPV misleading The problem that has traditionally plagued renewable energy technologies such as wind power is high, up-front capital construction costs. But, although these costs have often resulted in project net present values that appear unattractive when compared with, say, the traditional natural gas power plants of Southcentral Alaska, Gilbert believes comparisons based on net present values are often misleading.
“The economics are always shaky when you do a strict NPV analysis,” Gilbert said.
The fly in the net-present-value ointment is the uncertainty of future fuel prices. Or, to put that another way, there’s a high likelihood that fuel prices will continue to rise.
Gilbert cited the example of the Bradley Lake hydropower plant on Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula. Despite strong concerns about the high cost of the project when Bradley Lake came on line in 1991 the power plant reached cost parity with gas-generated electricity in about six years, he said.
“From now for about the next 94 years or so we’re all going to reap the benefits of this flat-priced energy,” Gilbert said.
Similarly, had a Fire Island wind farm been developed in 2005 at the then-estimated construction costs, escalating gas prices would by now have rendered Fire Island wind power competitive with gas-generated electricity, Gilbert said.
Utility grade turbines Moreover, commercial wind turbine equipment has now attained utility grade quality, with 97 to 98 percent reliability factors not uncommon, Gilbert said.
“The equipment has reached a point where it’s truly reliable, where you can hang your hat on it,” he said. “Projects are reporting a high level of availability, meaning that when the wind is blowing, that the units are available to run.”
And costs have come down.
“Wind power today is about $2,200 to $2,400 per kilowatt,” Gilbert said. That compares with $4,500 to $5,000 per kilowatt for a new hydropower plant, he said.
Although wind power suffers from the disadvantage of being subject to the vagaries of how much wind is blowing at any particular time, new technologies are enabling rapid output balancing between different power sources — say balancing the output of a hydropower plant to the variation in output from a wind farm.
“So this idea of balancing … different fuels is much more possible and useful,” Gilbert said.
140 megawatts plus Gilbert said that his company has identified 10 to 12 potential wind power sites scattered along the Alaska Railbelt, and thinks that there is a potential total capability of upwards of 140 megawatts of wind power.
Sites are identified by assessing topographic factors and looking for evidence of persistent winds.
“We look at prospective sites and they may or may not be worth continued investigation,” Gilberts said. “… We look for sites that are relatively close to the roads and relatively close to existing (electrical) infrastructure.”
Gilbert likened wind site identification to the pinpointing of prospects in oil and gas exploration. Subsequent site evaluation, the equivalent of exploratory oil drilling, then involves erecting one or more meteorological towers, to measure the wind speeds and other parameters over a period of a year or two.
A viable wind farm requires winds that are strong enough for adequate power generation — at least class 4 or class 5 winds, in wind-power speak. Wind persistence is also important. And air temperatures play into the viability equation — the relatively low temperatures and, hence, higher air pressures in Alaska would increase turbine efficiency.
However, temperatures below minus 40 F tend to cause problems with equipment operation.
Fire Island In terms of the Railbelt wind farm prospects, Fire Island continues to lead the pack.
“Fire Island is still very much alive,” Gilbert said, adding that a large Fire Island project could anchor an Alaska wind power industry, by building wind power expertise and providing training or test facilities.
Concerns about wind turbines interfering with some navigation systems associated with the nearby Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport have largely been addressed and discussions with the Federal Aviation Administration regarding final approval of the wind farm plan continue, Gilbert said.
“We’ve been working very closely with the FAA,” he said.
From a financial perspective, Wind Energy Alaska sees the Fire Island development as consisting of two distinct sub-projects: the construction of the wind farm itself and the construction of the supporting infrastructure, including a substation and a transmission line that connects with the onshore grid, Gilbert said.
CIRI and EnXco would fund the wind farm construction, with an estimated cost at $94 million to $95 million, Gilbert said.
“EnXco’s business is renewable power projects, so EnXco and CIRI together will be able to finance the wind farm,” he said.
But there’s still an open question regarding the funding of the infrastructure, with an estimated price ticket of $54 million. Several proposals, most of which include some element of state funding, are being considered, Gilbert said.
Hatcher Pass A potential site at Hatcher Pass, high in the mountains east of Willow, seems to be next in the line of possible Railbelt wind power opportunities. Wind Energy Alaska has applied for a state land use permit to site two meteorological towers on the ridge south of Willow Creek on the west side of Hatcher Pass, to commence a wind resource evaluation that would likely last one to two years.
“You’re going need at least two years’ worth of data to establish a bankable dataset,” Gilbert said.
Public comments on the proposal are due by 5 p.m. on Jan. 30.
Wind Energy Alaska proposes avoiding land damage by erecting the towers when the ground is frozen and by accessing the site by tracked vehicle. But, according to an Associated Press report, the Mat-Su State Parks Citizen Advisory Board is worried about potential damage to the land.
Gilbert said that his company is anxious to address local concerns.
“I’ll be visiting with the rural community council in February … to get their feedback on the idea,” Gilbert said.
In addition to measuring the wind resource, there are questions such as how to get turbines to a suitable site were a development to proceed and what the bird population is, before determining whether a wind power plant at Hatcher Pass is possible, Gilbert said.
“It might work. I don’t know,” Gilbert said. “It looks like there might be a resource.”
But whatever the future holds at Fire Island or Hatcher Pass, Gilbert sees energy diversification as the answer to growing concerns about the high level of dependence on natural gas for Railbelt power generation.
“If you’re painted into a corner, there’s only one way out and that’s to step on your paint,” Gilbert said. “We’re painted into a corner and this is the way out.”
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