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February 2011

Vol. 16, No. 9 Week of February 27, 2011

Thawing permafrost to accelerate warming

Carbon released from vegetation preserved in thawing permafrost will impact the rate of global warming, researchers from the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences predicted in a new report published on Feb. 14.

Plant material frozen in soil during the last ice age is being released as permafrost melts under the impact of rising Arctic temperatures, thus causing the ancient vegetation to rot and release carbon into the atmosphere.

Using climate predictions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the researchers calculated that 29 to 59 percent of the current permafrost will disappear by 2200, a loss in 200 years of permafrost that took tens of thousands of years to form. That loss of permafrost would release 126 to 254 gigatons of carbon, volumes corresponding to about one-fifth of the total carbon currently in the atmosphere, the researchers estimated.

“The amount of carbon released is equivalent to half the amount of carbon that has been released into the atmosphere since the dawn of the industrial age,” said NSIDC scientist Kevin Schaefer. “That is a lot of carbon.”

People developing strategies for addressing climate change need to consider the quantities of carbon coming from thawing permafrost in addition to carbon released into the atmosphere from the use of fossil fuels, the researchers say.

—Alan Bailey






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