|
EIA projects 28% growth in energy use Agency’s International Energy Outlook 2017 focused on 2015-2040, with most growth from non-OECD countries, especially non-OECD Asia Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
Between 2015 and 2040, world energy consumption is projected to grow 28 percent, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Sept. 14 in its International Energy Outlook 2017.
EIA said most of the growth was projected to come from countries not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, especially where demand is driven by strong economic growth, as in non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India. That area, EIA said, accounts for more than 60 percent of the world increase in economic consumption from 2015 through 2040.
Energy consumption in non-OECD countries increases 41 percent in that period, compared to 9 percent in OECD countries. World consumption of marketed energy from all fuel sources - except coal - is projected to increase; coal consumption is projected to remain essentially flat, EIA said. The fastest growing energy source is projected to be renewables, increasing on average 2.3 percent per year from 2015 to 2040, with nuclear the second-fastest growing source of energy at an increase of some 1.5 percent per year.
The agency noted that the U.S. projections in the IEO2017 are consistent with the agency’s Annual Energy Outlook 2017.
Cases considered The reference case is the basis for the 28 percent increase, and EIA said it assumes improvement in existing technologies and relies on views of leading economic forecasters. It also considers current policies for major countries.
The agency also produced high and low economic growth cases. The reference case uses a 3 percent per year growth in world gross domestic product; in the high economic growth case the increase is 3.3 percent per year and in the low case 2.7 percent per year.
EIA also produced high and low oil price cases. In the reference case, the price of North Sea Brent crude in 2016 dollars reaches $109 per barrel in 2040, compared to $226 in the high price case and $43 in the low price case.
Total liquids consumption increases from 191 quadrillion Btu in 2015 to 228 quadrillion Btu in 2040, accounting for 31 percent of total world energy use in the reference case. In the low oil price liquids account for 32 percent of total world energy use in 2040, and in the high oil price case, with higher oil prices discouraging liquids consumption, liquids account for 28 percent of total world energy use.
Consumption by sector, fuel type EIA said the industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of world energy use through 2040 in the reference case, but other sectors grow more quickly, with industrial use rising by an average pf 0.7 percent from 2015 through 2040, compared to 1 percent per year for transportation and 1.1 percent per year for buildings. Most of the growth in the industrial sector use is in non-OECD countries, where it grows by some 0.8 percent per year in the reference case, compared with 0.2 percent growth per year in OECD countries.
Natural gas is the world’s fastest growing fossil fuel, with an increase of 1.4 percent per year, compared to liquids at 0.7 percent per year and coal virtually flat at 0.1 percent per year.
Liquid fuels EIA said that world consumption of liquids fuels in the reference case rises from 95 million barrels per day in 2015 to 113 million bpd in 2040, with non-OECD nations accounting for most of the increase, some 1.3 percent per year, and a slight decrease in OECD nations.
“OPEC countries maintain or increase their combined market share of crude and lease condensate production,” the agency said.
In the reference case, consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels grows by 18 percent between 2015 and 2040, based on growth in non-OECD regions, which have an overall demand increase of 39 percent compared to a 3 percent decrease in OECD regions.
More than 80 percent of the increase in liquid fuels consumption is in non-OECD Asia, with China and India experiencing rapid industrial growth and increased transportation demand.
The transportation sector remains the largest liquids fuels consumer, with a 54 percent share in 2015 increasing to 56 percent in 2040. Industrial use stays steady at 36 percent, buildings use drops from 6 percent to 5 percent and electricity drops from 4 percent to 2 percent.
“The use of petroleum and other liquids to generate electricity declines over the projection as various factors, including increasing oil prices and relatively less costly natural gas, encourage producers to switch to alternative fuel sources,” EIA said.
The reference case shows an increase in liquid fuels production by 16.1 million bpd from 2015 to 2040. EIA said more than half of the increase comes from a 10.3 million bpd increase in crude oil and lease condensate - including tight and non-tight, extra-heavy crudes and processed bitumen from oil sands.
Natural gas Natural gas consumption increases 43 percent from 2015 to 2040 in the reference case, EIA said, with the increase largely due to non-OECD countries, “which have expanding industrial sectors and electricity demand.”
The growth in non-OECD countries is projected to average 1.9 percent per year, compared to 0.9 percent in OECD countries.
While natural gas consumption increases in all sectors, electric power and industry account for nearly 75 percent of the increase from 2015 through 2040.
The largest increases in natural gas production are in the Middle East, the United States and China, which account for 12 percent, 20 percent and 18 percent of growth. In the United States and China the increase is projected to come from development of shale resources. Russia’s increase comes from resource development in that country’s Arctic and Eastern regions, while newly developed offshore fields in Mozambique and Tanzania and increasing production from Egypt’s Zohr field support liquefied natural gas exports from Africa.
While shale resource development accounted for 50 percent of U.S. natural gas production in 2015, it is expected to account for 70 percent in 2040, “as the country leverages advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques and taps into newly discovered technically recoverable reserves,” EIA said.
Shale is expected to account for nearly 50 percent of the natural gas production in China by 2040, making that country the second largest shale gas producer after the U.S.
| 