The Saskatchewan government is taking a measured view of the 2013-14 fiscal year in forecasting prices, volumes and royalties from its primarily crude from sources that include the Bakken and Lower Shaunavon.
It anticipates combined average output of 470,685 barrels per day for the year starting April 1, a marginal gain from 469,041 bpd in 2012-13, with royalties growing C$119 million to C$1.44 billion. The province does not provide a breakdown by play type.
The volume increase is largely attributed to an average wellhead price forecast of C$75.29 per barrel, up C$6 from the previous year and is tied to the government’s West Texas Intermediate forecast of US$92.84 per barrel for the upcoming budget year compared with US$91.76 in 2012-13.
Narrower price spread
Some good news for producers is also contained in the province’s expectation of a narrower light-heavy price spread and a reduced exchange rate for the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart.
The government said it expects the light-heavy blend differential to average 17.9 percent in 2013-14, down from 20.4 percent in 2012-13.
Although forecasting a 25 percent year-over-year rise in natural gas wellhead prices to C$3.07 per Gigajoule, the government predicts output will slide to 337 million cubic feet per day 123.1 from 405 million cubic feet per day in 2012-13 in what it views as a continuing soft gas price market.
Government sales of exploration land are forecast to generate C$111.4 million, up C$22.5 million from the current budget year.
—Gary Park
