Though it will likely take years for Britain to fully disengage itself from the European Union, if it does at all, the implications of the Brexit vote was enough to hurdle gold through US$1,300 per troy ounce. Up nearly US$300/oz. since the start of 2016, the safe-haven metal is making strides towards testing the US$1,400/oz. threshold.
Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale, a French multinational banking and financial services company, believes gold and its precious metal companions will continue higher post-Brexit.
In a June 27 interview with Kitco News’ Danielle Cambone, Bhar explained, “The heightened market uncertainty will prompt investors to seek safe-haven assets, benefiting gold and the rest of the precious metals. While, arguably, some of this uncertainty has already been priced in, there is likely much more to come.”
A number of global banks and other metals forecasters agree with Bhar’s outlook, not only because of Brexit and the possibility that other European nations may be encouraged to follow suit, but also due to the lessened likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the United States anytime soon.
On the day after the British voted to leave the European Union, Julian Philips of the Gold Forecaster wrote, “We recognize that this is why the Fed waited before considering a rate hike. We don’t expect one until the end of 2016 at the earliest, if then.”
Gold eyeing $1,400
Gold had been flirting with US$1,300/oz. price levels since late April, reaching a pinnacle of US$1,294 on May 4 before retreating to US$1,212 by the end of the month. It wasn’t until mid-June, when it became clear that the referendum for Britain to exit the European Union may actually have the votes to pass, that gold took a one-day peek above the US$1,300 threshold.
As voters went to cast their votes on June 23, markets were unsure which way the Brexit referendum would go and gold had retreated to US$1,262/oz. By late evening in the United States, however, it became clear that a majority of British voters wanted to leave the European Union and the price of an ounce of gold shot up as much as US$100 in overnight trading and opened the next morning at US$1,319/oz.
Since Brits cast their votes to leave the European Union, gold prices have gained solid footing above the US$1,300/oz. and seem to be eying a run to US$1,400.
The precious metal held steady at around US$1,320/oz. during the week following Brexit before jumping to US$1,340/oz. on July 1 and breaking through US$1,350 on July 5. This run-up coincides with the Bank of England laying out plans to lube the gears of the economy with an outflow of British Pounds equivalent to US$199 billion.
This flood of money will get to the businesses and people by way of an easing of funding rules, a move that allows United Kingdom banks to lend more money.
“The U.K. has entered a period of uncertainty and significant economic adjustment,” Bank of England governor Mark Carney explained. “The bank has a clear plan. We are rapidly putting its main elements in place. And it is working.”
New York Times bestselling author Jim Rickards said such policies by central banks around the world is driving down the value of fiat currencies, resulting in a rise in the price of gold.
“Part of the reason gold is going up is that people are losing confidence in ‘central bank money’ from all of the central banks and turning to gold – not as a commodity trade or even as an investment but as a form of money,” he explained in a July 5 interview with CNBC.
Rickards says central banks don’t have enough room on their balance sheets to handle another global financial crisis. According to his calculations, such a collapse would result in gold rocketing to US$10,000/oz.
In the meantime, the author of “The New Case for Gold” expects the Federal Reserve to weaken the dollar with continued low interest rates.
“So, I’m looking for ease from the Fed in the form of forward guidance indicating they won’t raise rates. That means weaker dollar, stronger euro, stronger yen, also means a higher dollar price for gold and silver,” he explained.
Silver makes larger gains
While gold has grabbed the headlines, silver has had the highest percentage gains since the Brexit vote. The white precious metal has risen more than 15 percent from $17.29/oz. the day before the referendum to US$20.09 on July 6.
Sometimes referred to as “poor man’s gold” due to its relatively low price, silver is often sought by investors seeking a cheaper alternative.
“So for people who can’t afford gold look at silver,” Xiao Fu, head of commodity markets strategy at BOCI Global Commodities (U.K.)
This more volatile precious metal has gained 42 percent since the beginning of 2016, compared to 25 percent gains for gold over the same period
Considering that silver typically has larger price swings than its yellow counterpart, this sharper rise is not unexpected.
For example silver plummeted 71 percent from its peak in 2011 to January 2016, compared to about 43 percent drop for gold.
Given the silver to gold ratio, the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold, many investors see silver continuing to make larger percentage gains than gold.
The silver-gold ratio has averaged about 60-1 since 2000. To regain this level at today’s gold price, the price for an ounce of silver would need to climb about another 14 percent to US$22.80.
Since Brexit, investors in the United Kingdom have been buying up silver. Daniel Marburger, a director of Germany-based CoinInvest.com, told Bloomberg that 90 percent of the company's orders in early July had been for silver, compared with more typical demand of 70 to 80 percent for gold.
"The UK demand for Silver Britannia coins is very strong; three times more than average," he said.
