The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Sept. 12 that the U.S. “likely surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest crude oil producer earlier this year.”
In its September Short-Term Energy Outlook, posted Sept. 11, the EIA said U.S. crude oil production was estimated to average 10.9 million barrels per day in August, up 120,000 bpd from June, and forecast to average 10.7 million bpd this year, up from 9.4 million bpd in 2017, and projected to average 11.5 million bpd in 2019.
In its Sept. 12 statement the agency said U.S. crude oil production in February had exceeded that of Saudi Arabia - for the first time in more than two decades. In June and August, EIA said, the U.S. surpassed Russia for the first time since February 1999.
EIA does not publish crude oil forecasts for Russia and Saudi Arabia in its STEO but said it “expects that U.S. crude oil production will continue to exceed Russian and Saudi Arabian crude oil production for the remaining months of 2018 and through 2019.”
Saudi Arabia crude oil and other liquids production data are EIA internal estimates, the agency said, while data for Russia come mainly from the Russian Ministry of Oil. The agency said it also draws data for its estimates from other sources such as major producing companies, international organizations such as the International Energy Agency and industry publications.
Global production reaches record
The International Energy Authority said Sept. 13 that the global supply reached a record in August of 100 million bpd, with higher output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries offsetting non-OPEC seasonal declines. Even with seasonal declines, non-OPEC supply was up year-over-year by 2.6 million bpd in August, led by the U.S. IEA said non-OPEC production will grow by 2 million bpd this year and by 1.8 million bpd in 2019.
OPEC crude oil supply rose to a nine-month high of 32.63 million bpd in August on a rebound in Libya, near record Iraqi output and higher volumes from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, IEA said. There was a substantial production decline in Iran in August and a further fall in Venezuela.
The EIA showed a similar figure - with world liquid fuels production at some 100 million bpd in a third quarter 2018 projection.
EIA noted that production of U.S. crude, particularly light sweet crude, has risen rapidly since 2011, with much of the recent growth in the Permian, the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico and the Bakken.
“The oil price decline in mid-2014 resulted in U.S. producers reducing their costs and temporarily scaling back crude oil production,” EIA said. “However, after crude oil prices increased in early 2016, investment and production began increasing later that year. By comparison, Russia and Saudi Arabia have maintained relatively steady crude oil production growth in recent years.”
