For anyone wondering how Canada’s new government will tackle its industrial carbon emissions that account for only 1.6 percent of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, Justin Trudeau delivered a bold statement in June, four months away from achieving his then-unlikely goal of becoming prime minister.
“Make no mistake, the Liberal Party will be putting a price on carbon,” he said, without even hinting at what he had in mind.
At the time, that seemed like just another of ploy to win votes wherever the Conservative government of Stephen Harper appeared vulnerable.
Harper had consistently over his nine years as prime minister referred to a carbon tax as “job killing.”
Now that strategy has become a cabinet-level priority, with Trudeau decisively shifting Canada’s focus from pro-fossil fuel development to pro-environment in advance of the United Nations summit on climate change in Paris from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11, when world leaders will present their strategies for reducing GHGs beyond 2020.
The Harper government has already set a 30 percent reduction in GHG emissions from 2005 levels by 2030.
More decisive shift
The makeup of cabinet and cabinet committees leaves little doubt that Trudeau intends to make an even more decisive “green shift.”
In the forefront is Stephane Dion, a former leader of the Liberal party and former environment minister, who has been named chair of a new cabinet committee on environment, climate change and energy.
Trudeau has also added “climate change” to “environment” in selecting Catherine McKenna to lead the new ministry.
She has been a competition and international trade lawyer, with a long list of posts including a role as advisor to the United Nations peacekeeping mission in East Timor.
Greenpeace Canada climate researcher Keith Stewart, referring to the retitled ministry, said “names matter. The name change is an indication that dealing with climate change is now something the government does; it`s no longer a side division within a minor ministry.”
Elizabeth May, still the only Green Party member of the Canadian parliament, said “this is more than symbolism.”
Daunting task
What it does is present a daunting task for the Trudeau to achieve agreement with 10 provincial and three territorial governments on a national strategy for Paris, with the premiers joining the federal delegation.
That could encounter its first stumbling block, since Alberta Premier Rachel Notley has indicated her government will release only parts of its climate-change policy about a week before the Paris summit.
“We are going to do what we think we can to improve our record in a way that ... supports Albertans for generations to come. But we are also going to do it in a very progressive and balanced way that allows the (petroleum) industry to be healthy and prosperous,” she said.
Notley said it remains to be seen how close Alberta’s GHG targets will mesh with any federal plan.
The obvious concern is how far the dominant oil and gas producing provinces - Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan - will go in endorsing the federal position, when they remain Canada’s Conservative Party fortress, filling only six of 30 cabinet posts, while Ontario along has 11.
Trudeau’s desire to rebuild Canada’s international reputation is clear-cut.
Following the cabinet swearing-in ceremony he said “Canada is going to be a strong and positive actor on the world stage,” including at Paris.
“That’s why we have a very strong minister ... who’ll be at the heart of this discussion,” and a powerful committee led by Dion as foreign affairs minister and including McKenna, Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr, International Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland and Science Minister Kirsty Duncan, a University of Windsor, Ontario, climatology professor who served on the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Guarded view from industry
Industry leaders are taking a mostly guarded view of developments, with only Murray Mullen, chief executive officer of the Mullen Group, taking a hard line.
His company will stall further investment in the oil and gas sector until the Trudeau government unveils specific policies, he said.
“You’re really attacking the energy industry,” Mullen told the Globe and Mail. “That’s what climate change is all about. It is all about attacking carbon.”
Tim McMillan, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said every government “puts portfolios together in its own manner.”
“We’ll be looking to work with the government ministries that overlap our responsibilities. The minister of environment and climate change is one of those we will be reaching out to engage.”
Amending environmental assessments
Beyond environment, McKenna will be responsible for amending environmental assessments of pipeline projects, to lift restrictions on public participation in reviews and hearings and to more directly engage First Nations.
This could force Kinder Morgan’s planned tripling of capacity on its Trans Mountain pipeline and TransCanada’s planned 1.1 million barrel-per-day Energy East system to resubmit their applications.
But Trudeau had made clear that Enbridge’s Northern Gateway project has no hope of gaining approval once his government imposes a ban on tanker traffic operating off British Columbia’s northern coast.
TransCanada Chief Executive Officer Russ Girling said he expects a priority of the new Liberal government will be to develop market access for oil sands crude and LNG.
“We have been at this for the last 60 years and I suspect we will be at it for another 60 years,” he told analysts. “The need for modern, safe transportation remains critical.”
