Canada has resoundingly ended almost 10 years of Conservative Party rule under Prime Minister Stephen Harper when his Liberal Party rivals recorded possibly the most stunning comeback in the country's 148-year history.
Voters gave a sweeping majority to the Liberal Party, which entered an 11-week campaign leading up to the Oct. 19 election in a distant third place, with 34 members of Parliament in the House of Commons, lagging far behind the governing Conservatives at 166 and the New Democratic Party at 103.
When the ballots had been counted, the Liberals had 184 MPs, the Conservatives 99 and the NDP 44, with the separatist Bloc Quebecois at 10 and the Greens at 1.
Canada’s next prime minister is Justin Trudeau, aged 43 and the eldest son of Pierre Elliott Trudeau, who was prime minister for all but 10 months of the 1968-1984 period.
The result is clear. What isn’t so clear is what the return to a government with a bedrock in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada and only a handful of MPs in the petroleum industry’s home base of Alberta means for the oil and gas sector.
Adding to the feeling of unease is the memory of what happened under the elder Trudeau, who introduced a National Energy Program in 1980 that regulated the price of domestic crude, subsidized imported oil to benefit eastern Canadian consumers and placed controls on the price and volume of exports.
The government’s stated objective at that time was to improve security of supply and achieve ultimate independence from world oil - a goal it tried to strengthen by providing billions of dollars in loans and incentives for Canadian-controlled firms to explore in the Arctic and offshore regions.
The result was a pullout by United States-based companies and the loss of thousands of jobs, crippling the industry for more than a decade.
The new prime minister has given no indication that he has any similar strategies in mind, but he has pledged an immediate review of Canada’s regulatory process for oil and gas projects, along with a commitment to introduce “credible environmental assessments” and measures to respect the rights of aboriginal communities.
However, in a speech to the Calgary Petroleum Club earlier this year, Trudeau, in a passing acknowledgement of his father’s heavy-handed approach to the industry, said: “I understand how energy issues can divide this country.”
He promised “pragmatic” targets to reduce carbon emissions, while blaming Harper’s “intransigence” on the climate issue for dividing Canada, isolating the country internationally and leaving it unable to sell oil sands crude on global markets.
Reversal promised
The Liberal election platform has promised to reverse Harper’s environmental reviews with a “new, comprehensive, timely and fair process that restores robust oversight ... and ensures decisions are based on science, facts and evidence and serve the public’s interest” allowing interested Canadians and experts to “meaningfully participate in assessment processes.”
The incoming government said it will also join with provincial and territorial governments “to take action on climate change, put a price on carbon and reduce carbon pollution.”
“Together we will attend the Paris climate conference (in December) ... and establish a pan-Canadian framework for combating climate change” that will include targets for reducing national greenhouse gas emissions, while giving the provinces the flexibility to “design their own policies.”
Trudeau endorses Keystone XL
Noting that the Harper government was unable to secure any final approvals in the past 10 years for new oil export pipelines to serve United States and Asian markets, the Liberal government listed those projects it will support and those it rejects.
The major surprise is Trudeau’s endorsement of TransCanada’s Keystone XL line, which it said would “create jobs and growth, strengthen our ties with the world’s most important market and generate wealth,” while offering “much needed flexibility to a constrained continental energy delivery system.”
He said Harper failed to move the yardsticks for Keystone XL approval by failing to work with President Barack Obama to resolve the obstacles which have stalled progress.
“If we had stronger environmental policy - stronger, transparent oversight, tougher penalties and a means to price carbon pollution - Keystone XL would have been approved already,” the Liberal platform said.
Northern Gateway rejected
Of the other pipeline projects, the Liberals flatly reject Enbridge’s Northern Gateway because of concerns about how that pipeline would affect the coastal economy, the environment, local communities and First Nations; oppose TransCanada’s Energy East proposal which they say “poses more risks than benefits”; but decline to take a stand on Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain expansion while it is before regulators.
However, the Liberals say they believe Canada “needs new infrastructure, including pipelines, to move our energy resources to domestic and global markets.”
Tim McMillan, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said the Liberal majority government gives his changing industry political stability at the federal level.
“It allows us to work on what our priorities are, which really haven’t changed regardless of the election,” he said, referring to access to new markets and fiscal competitiveness.
