Canadian energy exports, mostly to the United States, have another year of growth before taking a dip in 2006, says Export Development Canada.
Sales will reach C$75 billion this year, an increase of 9 percent from 2004’s C$68.4 billion, largely reflecting price and volume gains in crude petroleum.
But a slowing global economy and a stabilizing U.S. dollar will contribute to slippage in 2006, based on EDC forecasts of a drift in average oil prices from US$45 a barrel this year to US$38 in 2006.If the federal department is on the mark, the value of petroleum exports will tumble by14 percent, following increases of 14 percent this year and 20.5 percent in 2004. Natural gas shipments will retreat by 7 percent, more than canceling out increases of 2 percent in 2005 and 3.7 percent in 2004.
The EDC says the dominant exporting province of Alberta will experience a 10 percent decline in 2006, ending a sustained run of increases that are expected to culminate this year in revenues of C$50 billion.
British Columbia is expected to post a 10 percent gain this year to more than C$5 billion, pulled by strong coal prices and higher gas production.
Saskatchewan will buck the trend, rising by 6 percent in 2006 after this year’s forecast C$3.2 billion, helped by surging worldwide demand for uranium.
East Coast exports are projected to reach almost C$2.6 billion this year, then fall by 12 percent in 2006.
—Gary Park
