Opening the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling is sure to headline legislation up for debate when the new Congress convenes in January. With both houses firmly under GOP control and a Republican president in the White House, it’s little wonder that all eyes are turning to ANWR.
“No one anticipated the outcome of the election,” one government official close to the debate said Nov. 8. “So people have taken the next step. Everybody’s meeting now to figure out what’s going to happen next.”
But legislation allowing oil exploration on ANWR’s 1.2 million-acre coastal plain is still a far cry from being a shoe-in, say advocates and observers close to the issue.
“The situation is exactly as it appears,” oil industry consultant Roger Herrera said Nov. 8. “It was a black and white scenario with (Sen. John) Kerry being black and never allowing drilling in the arctic coastal plain and Pres. Bush being the white knight and very much in favor of ANWR.
“And our side won,” said Herrera, who is a pro-ANWR lobbyist in Washington, D.C.
“While it’s not a foregone conclusion, we have the best opportunity to get legislation opening ANWR to exploration enacted since President Clinton vetoed a budget reconciliation package that include ANWR in 1995,” said John Katz, general counsel for the state of Alaska in Washington, D.C.
Senate makeup is key
Not only did Bush win re-election to the White House, but the U.S. Senate also picked up more Republican members as key Democrats went down to defeat across the country. Republican ranks ballooned to 55 vs. 45 Democrats in the Senate, while the House of Representatives retained its solid GOP majority.
“The new makeup of the Senate is important because the Senate has prevented the opening of the coastal plain of ANWR to oil exploration for the last 15 years,” Herrera said. “Getting a few more positive votes in the Senate is nothing to sneeze at.”
Katz, who has promoted pro-ANWR legislation for more than 25 years, said sides in the Senate debate will not fall out entirely along party lines. “Not all of the Republicans will support it and not all of the Democrats will oppose it,” he said.
The House of Representatives, however, remains solidly behind ANWR, Katz said. He observed that the House passed pro-ANWR legislation twice this year.
“If anything, the House is more resolved than ever to getting the legislation passed,” Herrera said.
Still, Herrera and Katz are both reluctant to predict victory at this stage.
Herrera expects a tough fight ahead for pro-ANWR forces because Kerry’s defeat also served to re-energize environmental groups, he said.
“It’s a windfall for the greens in fundraising. They can draft some misleading brochures about ANWR and go around the country convincing people to contribute to their cause,” Herrera said. “However, they’ve got to be concerned about their ability to continue stalling passage of the legislation in the Senate given the change in its membership.”
ANWR is roughly the size of South Carolina and extends from south of the Brooks Mountain Range to the shores of the Arctic Ocean. The coastal plain, which is about 1/18 of the entire refuge in size, is believed to hold vast quantities of recoverable oil.
Environmentalist say oil drilling on the coastal plain would disrupt wildlife, especially the Porcupine Caribou Herd in the area.
Picking the best strategy
Many observers believe the legislation will be introduced in the Senate during the budget reconciliation process next spring, between March 15 and April 15. If that happens, the legislation would only need 50 votes to win approval. A similar effort last year was defeated 52-48.
“We may or may not have enough votes to defeat a filibuster,” said Katz, “but it’s pretty clear that we have the votes to pass it in a budget reconciliation bill.”
Some observers say there is talk of wedging the legislation into the huge Omnibus Bill that Congress will consider during the lame duck session that begins on Nov. 16. Wiser heads say the budget reconciliation process will give ANWR legislation a better chance of passage.
“Already, key members of Congress have indicated that they want to deal with the legislation in the budget reconciliation bill,” Katz said. “Given the events of last week, it’s likely a budget reconciliation bill will pass the Congress. Some years that is not the case, so there still is an element of uncertainty.”
Herrera said speculation is futile given that anything can happen in the Senate.
“It would be logical to tackle it through budget reconciliation, but logic is rarely the driver in the U.S. Senate,” he said. “They may decide to go for the dreaded 60 votes.”
One important factor in the push for ANWR legislation is Alaska’s congressional delegation.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, who won re-election herself on Nov. 2, is ready to begin work on ANWR when Congress convenes in January, said her spokesman Chuck Kleeschulte.
“Sen. Murkowski is very hopeful that opening ANWR will be a possibility this spring,” Kleeschulte said. “The delegation will shoot for including it in the budget reconciliation process, which prevents filibusters and requires only 50 votes. The senator believes the election results will make that possibility even more likely, and if we are required to get the 60 votes to break a filibuster, we may even be able to do that.”
Murkowski is especially encouraged because a number of her fellow senators called to offer congratulations on winning re-election and brought up the subject of ANWR themselves and pledged to help her promote the legislation in the Senate, Kleeschulte said.
Katz said Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski, along with the Alaska delegation, plans to be very active in lobbying for ANWR during the next few months.
“We have a lot of homework yet to do,” he said. “We don’t want to assume anything.”
Democrats unwilling to compromise
The Senate debate over ANWR, whenever it erupts, will be different without the strident voice of former Democratic Leader Sen. Tom Daschle, who lost his bid for re-election in South Dakota. The election also could clear the way for Congress to pass several pieces of energy legislation, thanks in part to Daschle’s defeat, according to the National Association of Manufacturers.
“But I don’t think Daschle’s defeat will be the ultimate difference for ANWR even though he was an acute strategist,” Herrera said. “Whoever takes his place will be equally bulldoggish about opposing us.”
The Democrats’ intransigence on ANWR is sad, Herrera said, because it leaves no room for compromise. “I don’t see any willingness among the opponents to talk this thing out. The sad thing is there are many opportunities for compromise on this issue, but you can’t have a negotiation with yourself.”
Still, observers say 2005 offers pro-ANWR forces their best chance for getting legislation enacted since 1995. The 10 years since 1995 has made a big difference in the ANWR debate, they say.
For example, several members of the U.S. Senate ran on pro-ANWR positions this fall and got elected. By contrast, Herrera and others had to explain to numerous congressmen in 1995 what ANWR is.
Also, ANWR has won powerful proponents in Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., who chairs the Senate Energy Committee, and Rep. Richard W. Pombo, R-Calif., who heads the House Resources Committee.
“Domenici is very smart, so it’s a real feather for ANWR to have him pushing the issue. But he’s got to control all this enthusiasm for getting the legislation passed, or it could screw up the whole process,” one Washington insider said.
As for extraneous issues that have dogged the ANWR debate in the past, Herrera expects them to work in favor of the legislation this time.
Among the issues are the balance of payments deficit and concerns about world oil supplies. Opening ANWR would help cut the deficit, and it would diminish concerns about world oil supplies, Herrera said.
Katz said growing awareness and concerns of the general public about the price of fuel and how tenuous the world situation is in light of recent supply disruptions will help the cause.
“It’s the best alignment of events and circumstance favoring ANWR in a long time,” he added.
All roads lead to ANWR
Meanwhile, many wonder whether Pres. Bush’s re-election will spark new interest in exploring Alaska’s frontier areas among oil companies. Though federal lease sales during the past four years have been predictable and are expected to continue, the industry’s enthusiasm for Alaska exploration has been lukewarm, at best. In the most recent Lower Cook Inlet sale, for example, the industry offered no bids at all.
Herrera said he expects to see little change because results from exploration of Alaska’s frontier areas in the 1980s and since have been less than stellar and very costly.
“These days the driver for the oil companies is the quarterly report, and they are much less willing to take the risks they took 20 years ago,” he said. “That’s why ANWR is so important. It’s a much smaller risk; it’s sexy; it’s easy to operate in; and it’s been known about for 30 years. The appetite of the oil companies to go into this area is orders of magnitude greater than other less sexy areas of Alaska such as the Beaufort Sea.”
In addition to the delegation and pro-ANWR lobbyists working the issue, observers can expect to see more tours of the ANWR coastal plain, especially for new members of Congress.
Herrera said he and Arctic Power, the pro-ANWR lobbying group that is backed by the state of Alaska and the oil industry, plan to battle on as they have in the past and hope the slight advantage their forces picked up in the Senate will enable them to prevail.
Said Herrera: “In the end, it’s votes you have to count.”
