OCS resource update
 Click here to go to the full PDF version of this issue, with any maps, photos or other artwork that appears in
some of the articles.
BOEM issues 2026 assessment of undiscovered O&G on US outer continental shelf
Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
The U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has issued its 2026 Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources for the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf, providing 'estimates of undiscovered, technically and economically recoverable oil and natural gas resources outside of known oil and gas fields on the OCS.'
BOEM said the 2026 assessment is a multi-year effort including data and information available Jan. 1, 2024.
For the entire OCS, estimates of undiscovered technically recoverable resources, UTRR, range from 53.75 billion barrels of oil at the 95th percentile, a 95% probability, or a 19 in 20 chance, to 79.65 billion barrels of oil at the fifth percentile, a 5% or 1 in 20 chance, with a mean of 65.80 billion barrels.
Gas estimates range from 170.41 trillion cubic feet to 270.97 tcf with a mean of 218.43 tcf.
On a barrel of oil equivalent basis, the combination of oil and gas, the Alaska OCS contains the most resources, 44% of total UTRR, BOEM said, followed by the Gulf of America with 33%, with the Pacific third and Atlantic fourth.
Undiscovered economically recoverable resources, UERR, are ranked based on price per barrel for oil and price per thousand cubic feet for gas, with a range of prices ' for oil, $30, $30, $60, $100 and $160 per barrel. For gas, the prices used are much higher for Alaska than for the Lower 48. For the Lower 48, gas is priced at 30% of the economic value of oil; for Alaska it is priced at 100%.
BOEM estimates that some 60% of OCS resources remain undiscovered after more than 70 years of OCS exploration and development, with some 33% of resources produced and 7% discovered reserves and contingent resources.
Alaska BOEM said mean UTRR for the Alaska OCS decreased by 0.90 billion barrels of oil equivalent compared to its 2021 assessment, 'with the bulk of the reduction due to the reassessment of risk profiles and adjustments to the spatial extent of assessment units throughout the region.'
On a UERR basis, Alaska resources are not economic at the low end of prices; at the high end (oil at $160 per barrel and gas at $28.47 per mcf), Alaska UERR includes 14.67 billion barrels of oil and 58.78 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Alaska OCS is the largest and most geologically diverse of the regions, BOEM said, including more than 1 billion acres and more than 6,000 miles of coastline.
Regional economic parameters for the 2026 Alaska Assessment uses three cost centers: North Slope, Southcentral and Bering Sea.
Most engineering variables remain unchanged from the 2021 assessment BOEM said, however 'the assumptions behind transportation of hydrocarbons via pipeline to market were updated to reflect construction of a gas pipeline from the North Slope to Nikiski.'
The gas price adjustment factor has also been changed, with BOEM now reporting Alaska UERR 'using a 1.0 adjustment factor, where previous assessments utilized a 0.3 factor for AK UERR.'
Alaska OCS planning areas The Beaufort Sea planning area contains the Beaufort shelf, an extension of onshore northern Alaska, and because of the more than 30 oil and gas fields onshore near the coast, BOEM said, and an abundance of untested traps, 'the Beaufort and adjacent Chukchi Sea are considered high potential areas,' with 36 wells drilled on Beaufort Sea OCS leases.
Development in the Beaufort Sea planning area 'will likely be restricted to relatively shallow water depths' of less than 600 feet for the foreseeable future, BOEM said.
The Chukchi Sea planning area is on the northwestern margin of the Alaska OCS with water depths typically about 160 feet except for the Barrow and Hanna submarine canyons, where depths range from 165 to 660 feet.
The agency said its analysis assumes offshore trunklines from centrally located offshore facilities to the Chukchi coast, and then running overland to the trans-Alaska oil pipeline.
'Commercial development of the Chukchi Sea could take many decades, during which time oil production from the area would be entirely dependent on continued operation of North Slope infrastructure, particularly TAPS.'
Other planning areas on the west of the state include the Hope Basin, Norton Basin, Navarin Basin, St. George, North Aleutian, Shumagin, Kodiak and Gulf of Alaska.
In Southcentral Alaska, the Cook Inlet planning area has seen recent OCS lease sales and has active leases, but no production. BOEM said exploration and development would take place in shallower water depths and less severe sea conditions compared to more exposed areas facing the Pacific Ocean. And exploration could take place year-round in Lower Cook Inlet, 'as seasonal sea ice is generally confined to the Upper Cook Inlet.'
Alaska OCS UTRR oil is estimated to range from 16.67 billion to 33.61 billion barrels of oil with a mean of 24.1 billion barrels.
UTRR gas is estimated to range from 89.43 tcf to 159.28 tcf with a mean estimate of 122.29 tcf, while the mean volume of Alaska UTRR on a combined barrel of oil equivalent is 45.86 billion barrels.
| 