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Vol. 25, No.08 Week of February 23, 2020
Providing coverage of Alaska and northern Canada's oil and gas industry

Kenney goes green: Alberta premier says renewable energy inevitable

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Gary Park

for Petroleum News

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, seen as one of Canada’s if not the world’s most resolute defenders of the hydrocarbon industry, has stunned his political allies and enemies.

Without any buildup he acknowledged to a Washington, D.C., panel earlier in February that an energy transition is inevitable.

Over the coming decades “as we go through an energy transition, we all know” that the world will arrive at its last barrel of oil, he said, emphasizing that Alberta’s goal should be to ensure that the last barrel of oil “comes from a stable, reliable liberal democracy with among the highest environmental, human-rights and labor standards on earth.”

Kenney told the Calgary Herald that he has a “firm grasp of the obvious. No reasonable person can deny that in the decades to come we will see a gradual shift from hydrocarbon-based energy to other forms of energy.”

Concession from hardline party

That concession by his hardline United Conservative Party government leaves outsiders to scratch their heads and rethink new polling information from Abacus Data-Clean Energy Canada that show 68% of Canadians and the same percentage of Albertans view Kenney as inflexible when it comes to oil sands development.

In the same poll, 60% of Albertans - another shock for those who have a fixed idea on the entrenched mindset in Alberta - want Kenney to find ways to shift the province’s economy to green over time.

For some observers, this apparent about face by Kenney is seen as a cynical ploy to sway the cabinet of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau into approving Teck Resources’ Frontier oil sands mine, although the premier has given no sign he is ready to adopt the federal carbon tax in return for a Frontier go-ahead.

Kenney also said he understands that the most influential investors and energy companies are rapidly shifting their alliances to jurisdictions that favor strong green agendas.

“We get it. There is a transition going on,” he said, while noting that the International Energy Agency, in its most bearish projection, estimates global consumption of oil will be 68 million barrels per day in 2040, about 31 million bpd below current levels, while natural gas output will have doubled.

But he is eager to see Alberta play a vital role in the growth of renewable energy and the green of non-renewable sources as fossil fuel energy producers commit themselves to net-zero carbon emissions.

Kenney put the spotlight on what he estimated are renewable energy projects valued at “billions of dollars” in Alberta, including a Travers Solar Energy Project near Calgary which has attracted C$500 million of investment from Denmark.

He said there are two schools of thought in the world - one he described as a utopian notion that energy needs can be extracted from “rainbows and unicorn farts” and the other that believes hydrocarbon-based energy will be consumed over another 20 to 30 years, while modern development economies will develop “energy sources we haven’t even considered yet.”

Oil sands still an issue

However, this apparent greening of Kenney is not about to see him lay down his arms in the battle with Trudeau, especially over the estimated oil sands emissions.

Alberta has insisted that the Teck Frontier project can proceed without endangering the province’s pledge to keep its greenhouse gas emissions under 100 million metric tons a year.

Frontier is targeted at 4.1 million metric tons a year and could achieve even less if the company delivers on its started target of net-zero emissions for all of its global projects by 2050.

Federal Environment Minister Jonathan has argued that if all the 20-plus oil sands projects that have been approved and are awaiting construction do go ahead Alberta will reached 130 million metric tons a year of emissions.

But that depends on whose current estimates are believed - Alberta’s claim that current output is 68 million metric tons and the federal data projects this year’s output will be 87 million metric tons and will hit the province’s ceiling within a decade even if no new projects are built.

- GARY PARK



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