EIA: US crude volumes continue to grow
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Agency forecasts 13.11 million bpd in 2024, up from 12.93 million bpd this year; Brent forecast at $83 per barrel, up from $82
Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 12.93 million barrels per day this year, and climb to 13.11 million bpd in 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Dec. 12 in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook. That continued growth is projected to support increased crude oil exports, the agency said.
Net U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products, minus imports, are expected to set a new record in 2024. The agency said this follows net export growth this year driven by both the growth in crude oil production and field production of hydrocarbon gas liquids -- ethane, propane, butane and natural gasoline -- which grew between 6% and 10%.
While the U.S. is a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products combined, it is a net importer of crude oil, EIA said, with net imports expected to average some 2.2 million barrels per day in 2024, down slightly from this year. Crude oil production continues to support crude exports, which averaged more than 4 million bpd in 2023 through September, the agency said.
EIA said some U.S. refineries have added capacity to process additional light and sweet crude, but refiners in Europe and Asia increasingly import U.S. produced crude. "Growth in refinery processing from overseas refiners means the growth in U.S. crude oil production in 2024 will mostly be exported, increasing net U.S. petroleum exports," the agency said.
Prices EIA said the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged $101 per barrel in 2022, is forecast to average $82 per barrel this year and $83 in 2024.
The Henry Hub natural gas price per million British thermal units averaged $6.42 in 2022 and is forecast to average $2.56 this year and $2.79 in 2024.
EIA said it expects the natural gas price this winter to be $2.77 per million Btu, some 23% lower than the agency previously forecast, based on a warmer than expected start to the winter season resulting in less natural gas consumption for heating.
"We're seeing record domestic natural gas production paired with lower-than-expected natural gas demand, and we expect that is going to push prices lower this winter season," said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis.
On top of recent increases in natural gas production, reducing the November prices, the agency also noted high storage inventory levels.
The agency said U.S. dry natural gas production in November averaged some 105 billion cubic feet per day, "the most for any month on record."
Production averaged almost 103 bcf per day in the first half of the year, EIA said, and has increased in most months in the second half, with dry natural gas production forecast to remain close to 105 bcf per day for the rest of the winter.
Renewables outpace coal "Renewables, particularly solar photovoltaics, are growing rapidly and making large contributions to electricity generation," DeCarolis said. Combined electricity generation from wind and solar are forecast to outpace coal in electricity generation in 2024, the agency said, with solar generation in 2024 expected to increase by 39% from 2023 levels.
EIA said that due to investment in solar photovoltaic generating capacity, solar is "the fastest growing source of U.S. electric power generation."
Twenty-three gigawatts of solar power are expected to come online this year, up 33% from 2022, and 37 GW in 2024, up 39% from this year, accompanied by 9 GW of new U.S. battery storage capacity this year, "doubling the total amount compared with what was operating at the end of 2022."
The agency said the growth in solar photovoltaic production will likely slow growth in electricity generation from natural gas, the largest source of growth in recent years, with growth of 7% this year from 2022, but forecast to grow by only 1% in 2024, reaching some 1,714 billion kilowatt hours.
Coal-fired electricity generation continues to decline on growing renewables, low natural gas prices and retirements of coal-fired plants, the agency said, with less than 599 billion kwh of power generation expected next year, lower than combined generation from solar and wind of an estimated 688 billion kwh for the first time on record.
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