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CO2 emissions down in US, up in world Changing fuel usage in U.S. has caused emissions to drop; economic growth and other factors elsewhere have more than offset the fall Alan Bailey Petroleum News
According to a report published by the International Energy Agency, or IEA, on May 24, carbon dioxide emissions, although climbing in the world as a whole, have actually been dropping in the United States in recent years.
U.S. emissions have dropped by 430 million tonnes, or 7.7 percent since 2006, the largest drop in any region or country worldwide, the report says. In 2011 U.S. emissions fell by 92 million tonnes, or 1.7 percent.
Fuel usage
IEA attributes the drop to the reduced use of oil in transportation and a shift from coal to natural gas for power generation. The reduction in transportation fuel usage results from improved vehicle efficiency, higher oil prices and the economic downturn, EIA says. The burning of natural gas produces less carbon dioxide per unit of energy than the burning of coal because gas contains hydrogen, which burns to water, as well as carbon, which burns to carbon dioxide. Coal consists essentially of carbon.
European carbon dioxide emissions also dropped in 2011, falling by 69 million tonnes, or 1.9 percent, thanks to reduced industrial activity in a sluggish economy and a relatively warm winter. Overall within the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, emissions dropped by 0.6 percent in 2011.
Offset by increases These reductions were offset by increases in carbon dioxide emissions elsewhere in the world, resulting in a rise of one gigatonne, or 3.2 percent in total global emissions in 2011. China made the largest contribution to this increase, with emissions climbing by 720 million tonnes, or 9.3 percent, largely because of increased coal usage in that country. Emissions from India increased by 140 million tonnes, or 8.7 percent. And in Japan emissions increased by 28 million tonnes, or 2.4 percent, as power generation switched to fossil fuel use in the wake of last year’s nuclear disaster.
However, the increase in emissions in China must be viewed against a backdrop of the expanding Chinese economy: Energy efficiency in the country is actually increasing, with the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of gross domestic product falling by 15 percent between 2005 and 2011, the report says. And the per-capita carbon dioxide emissions from China are just 63 percent of the OECD per capita emissions, while the corresponding figure for India is 15 percent.
Climate concerns An energy strategy consistent with limiting to 50 percent the probability of a 2 degree Celsius rise in average global temperatures requires carbon dioxide emissions to peak at 32.6 gigatonnes by 2017, EIA says. With that 32.6-gigatonne figure just 1 gigatonne above the 2011 level, and with carbon global dioxide emissions in 2011 growing faster than the global gross domestic product, the prospects of meeting the strategy goals do not appear promising.
“The new data provide further evidence that the door to a 2C trajectory is about to close,” said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol.
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