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Record growth in energy & CO2 emissions
IEA report shows global economic growth, increased use of heating & cooling systems drove rapid rise in energy consumption in 2018
Alan Bailey Petroleum News
The International Energy Agency’s annual report on global energy and carbon dioxide emissions trends has found that global energy consumption in 2018 increased by 2.3 percent, nearly double the annual rate since 2010. The result was that carbon dioxide emissions increased at a record rate of 1.7 percent to a record high of 33.1 gigatons. IEA attributes the rapid rise in energy use to buoyant global economic growth and to the increasing use of building heating and cooling systems in some parts of the world - more than half of the growth resulted from an increased demand for electricity. There was only a modest increase in overall energy efficiency.
China, India and the United States together accounted for nearly 70 percent of the demand increase, with China seeing the biggest rate of growth.
Demand for fossil fuels The increase in carbon dioxide emissions reflects the fact that the use of fossil fuels rose rapidly, despite a robust increase in the use of renewable energy sources. China, India and the United States accounted for 85 percent of the emissions increase, with emissions falling in Germany, Japan, Mexico, France and the United Kingdom.
Natural gas, supporting 45 percent of the overall energy demand increase, led the pack when it came to demand growth for fossil fuels: Underpinned by a continuing switch from coal to gas for power generation, global gas consumption increased by an estimated 4.6 percent in 2018. That followed a 3 percent increase in 2017. The United States led the growth in gas demand, followed by China. Changing weather patterns contributed to the increase, with a relatively cold winter and hot summer in 2018 driving heightened use of gas both for heating and for power generation in support of air conditioning.
Coal and oil Although coal’s share in the global energy mix continued to decline, the overall rapid increase in energy demand resulted in a 0.7 percent increase in coal demand in 2018. Coal continues as the largest source of energy for electricity generation and the second-largest source of primary energy. Coal use is also the biggest single source of global carbon dioxide emissions, accounting for 30 percent of energy related emissions in 2018, the IEA report says.
The demand for oil increased by 1.3 percent in 2018, with demand growth being strongest in the United States. Demand growth in China was also strong. Demand fell in Japan and Korea, while changing little in Europe. The IEA largely attributes the overall growth in demand for oil to the startup of large petrochemical projects. Growth in global gasoline consumption slowed - China has seen a significant shift from the sale of gasoline and diesel cars to electric cars. On the other hand, a major growth in worldwide air travel in recent years has pushed up the demand for jet fuel: In 2018 air transportation accounted for 20 percent of global oil demand growth, the IEA report says.
Renewable energy increasing The use of renewable energy sources continued to increase rapidly, supporting nearly one quarter of the global energy demand growth in 2018. In particular, renewables-based electricity generation increased at the fastest rate of the past decade. Renewables accounted for nearly 45 percent of growth in global electricity generation and now represent more than 25 percent of global power output. Solar, hydropower and wind each represented about one third of the overall renewable growth, with bioenergy accounting for most of the rest.
China accounted for more than 40 percent of the overall increase in renewable-based electricity generation, with Europe accounting for 25 percent. The United States and India together contributed 13 percent of the growth.
The pattern of renewable energy use comes against a backdrop of increasing global demand for electricity: In 2018 demand increased by 4 percent, a figure that is nearly double the rate of increase in overall energy demand. The United States and China accounted for 70 percent of that growth. The increased use of coal- and gas-fired power generation in support of the demand increase caused carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector to increase by 2.5 percent.
Following the implementation of new nuclear power capacity in China and the restart of four nuclear reactors in Japan, the global use of nuclear power increased by 3.3 percent in 2018, the IEA report says.
Energy efficiency Global energy intensity, the amount of energy consumed per unit of economic activity, decreased by 1.3 percent in 2018. Although this points to a continuing improvement in global energy efficiency, the rate of improvement slowed relative to previous years. Energy efficiency remains the biggest driver of reduced carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector of the economy, despite seeing a slowing rate of improvement for three consecutive years, the IEA report says. The IEA attributes the slowing progress in energy efficiency improvement to limited progress in implementing or improving energy efficiency policies.
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