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February 1999

Vol. 4, No. 2 Week of February 28, 1999

BP February term price up 15 percent

Kristen Nelson

BP America’s February West Coast term price for Alaska North Slope crude oil is $10.79 a barrel, up $1.42 a barrel (15.15 percent) from January’s term price of $9.37 a barrel. January’s term price was the lowest since July 1986, when BP’s West Coast term price was $9 a barrel.

The current term price is 27 percent lower than the February 1998 term price of $14.77 a barrel and the year-to-date average price, $10.08 a barrel, is 35 percent below the comparable average a year ago of $15.59 a barrel.

BP produces the largest volume of North Slope crude oil and is the only producer to post term prices.

State reduces fiscal year forecast

In January, based on oil prices at “historically low levels,” the Department of Revenue’s Oil and Gas Audit Division revised the oil price assumptions from its fall 1998 revenue forecast to $11.58 per barrel for fiscal 1999 and $12.50 per barrel for fiscal year 2000. The division’s spring forecast will be released April 1.

The division said that a January poll of the group who put together the fall forecast indicated a consensus that the price will move back up to the $15 to $16 per barrel range in the fiscal year 2001 through fiscal 2003 time frame.

As recently as Dec. 1, the division projected a 1999 fiscal year average ANS price of $13.03 a barrel and a fiscal year 2000 ANS average price of $13.27 a barrel. ANS averaged $16.03 a barrel for the 1998 fiscal year, which ended June 30.

Lower crude demand because of the economic crisis in Asia and increased production from OPEC are credited with producing “a tremendous glut of oil in the market,” the division said.






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