New Arctic oil spill trajectory modeling

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement has published the results of a study into the impacts of climate change on mathematical models for the trajectories of oil spill slicks in the Arctic offshore. The agency uses these models for assessing potential oil spill impacts when making decisions over lease sales, and in preparing documents required under the National Environmental Policy Act.

“As we make decisions regarding potential energy development in the Arctic, we need the best scientific data available to understand the impact of the changing climate,” said BOEMRE Director Michael Bromwich on Aug. 29 in announcing the publication of the study results. “This study will help improve our computer modeling and analyses and it adds to the growing body of research regarding effects of climate change on the Arctic marine environment.”

Oil spill trajectories in the Arctic offshore would be impacted by ocean currents, which in turn are influenced by factors such as wind, precipitation, evaporation, river runoff and sea ice coverage, with rapid changes in any of the climate related parameters potentially altering the currents, BOEMRE says.

The two-year study, the results of which BOEMRE has now published, particularly focused on the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, taking into account the most up-to-date oceanographic knowledge and including feedback from oceanographic and atmospheric scientists. The report recommends that BOEMRE should organize a data archive of U.S. Arctic atmospheric, sea ice and ocean conditions, to enable the documentation of major environmental changes. The report also recommends that the agency should run multiple models, to assess the how these models predict the changes in movement of a hypothetical oil spill under the impacts of climate variability, using data covering a five-year period.

—Alan Bailey