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Providing coverage of Alaska and northern Canada's oil and gas industry
January 2020

Vol. 25, No.02 Week of January 12, 2020

Study assesses impacts of seismic in ANWR on polar bear denning

Alan Bailey

for Petroleum News

With the prospect of oil and gas exploration on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in the relatively near future, new seismic surveying in the region will presumably take place as a forerunner to the identification of exploration drilling targets. But what will be the environmental impacts of the surveying, in particular on polar bears that den in the region during the winter? Researchers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey have published a paper in the Journal of Wildlife Management, describing the results of modeling the potential impacts on the bears, and suggesting ways whereby those impacts may be minimized.

The researchers have found that it is possible to prepare for and design seismic surveys in such a manner that the impacts on polar bears can be relatively insignificant. But, without appropriate planning and design, surveying would likely be harmful. As part of the permitting process for a survey, the company conducting the survey would need to demonstrate the use of procedures that would limit polar bear impacts to acceptable levels - polar bears have been listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act and are protected under the terms of the Marine Mammal Protection Act.

Popular region for bear denning

The ANWR coastal plain is a particularly popular region for the winter denning of female polar bears in the snow, to give birth to cubs. Winter is also the time when seismic surveying is conducted, with the frozen ground and snow cover protecting the tundra from potential damage from seismic vehicles.

Disturbance to a polar bear den can cause den abandonment, early emergence from the den by the bears, and stress on the mother bear that can impact the successful birthing of cubs, the Journal of Wildlife Management paper says. At the same time the subsistence take of polar bears already exceeds the assessed rate of polar bear removal, above which a sustainable bear population is at jeopardy. Hence the need to ensure that seismic surveying has an insignificant impact on the bears, the paper says.

Modeling of survey impacts

The researchers conducted statistical assessments of potential polar bear impacts by computer modeling of five seismic survey designs, each involving two seismic crews conducting 24-hours per day operations between Feb. 1 and May 15. The survey designs ranged from a least restrictive scenario, with no spatial or temporal limitations, to the most restrictive, involving specific dates for conducting surveying within specific survey blocks.

The researchers identified the particular importance of locating polar bear dens in advance by conducting an airborne forward looking infrared survey, or FLIR, ahead of the seismic surveying time window, but after the start of the bear denning season. Using this technique, up to 90% of dens can be detected, the paper said. However, although FLIR use would have a major impact in reducing bear den disturbance, the selection of an appropriate survey design, with careful planning of the timing and location of seismic activities, is also critical to ensuring that den impacts will be insignificant.

“The scenario with the highest spatial and temporal specificity always had the lowest level of disturbance for all scenarios with and without the aerial (FLIR) survey included,” the paper says.

Value of coordination with regulators

In addition, coordination between industry and resource management agencies when developing proactive environmental conservation plans would be particularly valuable in avoiding more conservative government oversight, the paper suggests. The researchers say that, although their study does not provide a final answer on how to design seismic surveys for the ANWR coastal plain, the study does provide guidance to operators on initial survey design considerations, to assist with the development of survey plans that will meet regulatory requirements.

“Our study highlights that, with sufficient planning and effective mitigation measures, the effects to denning bears could likely be reduced sufficiently to allow seismic operators to complete their work over large areas,” the paper says. “Seismic operators and wildlife managers should consider design differences when planning surveys, as starting points to help achieve desired levels of protection for denning polar bears.”

- ALAN BAILEY






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