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Will ships sail directly over the pole? An intriguing new analysis of Arctic Ocean sea ice projections says ‘unprecedented’ navigational routes could open by mid-century Wesley Loy For Petroleum News
Can you envision oil, gas, minerals and other cargos traveling aboard ships directly over the North Pole?
It’s not far-fetched.
A new analysis of sea ice projections finds unprecedented navigation routes opening up by mid-century, greatly enhancing the chances for ships to transit the Arctic Ocean, whether by routes along the coasts of Russia and Canada, or straight across the polar sea.
The findings “have important implications for trade, environmental risk, and evolving strategic and governance policies in the Arctic,” says the article published March 4 on the website of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The article is available at http://bit.ly/VFy58E.
Two vessel classes The lead author is Laurence C. Smith, geography professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. The article acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Researchers analyzed seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, and assumed two different climate change scenarios and two vessel classes. The first class includes “open-water vessels” with no hull ice strengthening. Such ships are common, comprising the vast majority of the global fleet. The second class, known as Polar Class 6, includes moderately ice-strengthened ships such as those used today in the Baltic Sea.
“Since 1979, satellite mapping has revealed an overall trend of decreasing late-summer sea ice extent in the Arctic, with the six lowest years on record occurring since 2006,” the article begins.
The trend is expected to continue, leading to a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean later this century, it says.
The researchers look at the optimal, lowest-cost navigation routes for ships seeking to traverse the Arctic Ocean between the Bering Strait and the North Atlantic ports of Rotterdam, Netherlands, and St. John’s, Newfoundland.
Their simulations focus solely on the peak navigation month of September, when open water reaches its maximum annual extent.
They examine three basic shipping routes: the Northern Sea Route, which goes over Russia, the Northwest Passage over Canada, and strait across the Arctic Ocean via the North Pole.
The findings By mid-century (2040 to 2059), the region’s overall navigation potential increases substantially, the researchers find.
The feasibility for open-water vessels to complete September trans-Arctic voyages along the Northern Sea Route improves, with numerous optimal routes shifting northward away from the Russian Federation coast, the article says. By mid-century, the probability of a technically feasible transit rises to 94 percent or better.
Some ships already are moving along the Northern Sea Route, with Russia charging escort fees to international vessels, the article says.
As for navigating along the top of Canada, the authors write that “the Northwest Passage, arguably the most historically famed of potential shipping routes through the Arctic, has the lowest navigation potential both historically and at present but opens substantially by 2040-2059.”
The Northwest Passage is a substantially shorter route to eastern North America than the Northern Sea Route. By mid-century, the probability of a feasible transit by an open-water ship through the Northwest Passage could more than double to 60 percent, the article says.
As for travel through the central Arctic Ocean, the researchers see the emergence by mid-century of “unprecedented” new optimal navigation routes for ships with moderate ice-breaking capability, including a “robust corridor directly over the North Pole” to Europe.
Important caveats These findings “may well be conservative,” as current climate models often lag behind real-world satellite observations of shrinking Arctic sea ice cover, the researchers note.
“We reiterate that these results reflect conditions for peak late-summer (September) shipping season only, and are driven solely by projected reductions in sea ice thickness and concentration,” the researchers write.
They continue: “Although sea ice currently represents the single greatest obstacle to trans-Arctic shipping, numerous additional factors, including dearth of services and infrastructure, high insurance and escort fees, unknown competitive response of the Suez and Panama Canals, poor charts, and other socioeconomic considerations, remain significant impediments to maritime activity in the region.”
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