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Herrera: ANWR imminently winnable First ANWR lease sale could be held before next presidential election Steve Sutherlin PNA Managing Editor
The fight in the U.S. Congress to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil exploration is imminently winnable, but supporters must stay vigilant on all fronts, says Roger Herrera, Arctic Power’s Washington, D.C., coordinator.
“It takes an attitude,” Herrera said in remarks to the Resource Development Council in Anchorage Dec. 5. “If we don’t believe this is imminently winnable and will be won, then we deserve the end result.”
If a bill with a provision to open ANWR is signed this spring, the first lease sale on the coastal plain could occur before the next election, he said, adding that economically, there is nothing on the horizon for the state with the immediate impact of ANWR.
“In my opinion, from viewing the politics of this issue, the short-term immediate benefits of ANWR to the state of Alaska far exceed any other issue that’s on the agenda of Congress, including the gas pipeline,” Herrera said. “The sale could bring in hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars to the state of Alaska.”
Herrera said there is no reason, after the results of the election, to think that the 218 pro-ANWR development votes cast on the House energy bill, H.R. 4, in the last session can’t be held for the vote on the issue in the upcoming session.
In the Senate, only 50 votes are needed, because the vice president, a supporter of ANWR development, casts the tie-breaking vote. The optimistic outlook is based on the assumption that in the Senate, the ANWR drilling provision would be inserted in a budget reconciliation bill, which cannot be filibustered, therefore a majority vote prevails.
Union, White House support critical To uphold the optimistic outlook for ANWR drilling, it is critical that the unions and the White House stay engaged in the battle, Herrera said.
“Union support on opening ANWR in Washington, D.C., is as critical and as necessary as it has ever been,” he said. “(Loss of union support) would create a gap in our arsenal which would be very difficult to fill.”
The efforts of the Teamsters, spearheaded by Jerry Hood, have been absolutely vital to the positive outcomes in the House, Herrera said. Nothing else has the impact of the “eyeball to eyeball” contact by the unions.
“From January on, there are 535 offices on Capitol Hill and we’ll have to go into every one of those offices three or four times,” Herrera said. “Even the ones who are well educated on this issue want to be updated on the latest nuance of it, so there are huge numbers of office visits.”
The union can take up a lot of the load from the few members of staff and visitors that Arctic Power uses for lobbying work, and top union officials can get into the offices of important representatives, Herrera said, adding that union support has prevented the ANWR issue from becoming snagged in partisan politics in the House.
Timely White House intervention is essential, particularly in the Senate battle to open the refuge for drilling, Herrera said.
“The president and the White House have to come out fighting on this issue,” he said.
“When we wanted the White House to act last year, they acted.”
Herrera said White House support would be even more critical in the coming year to preserve the 51-vote majority in the Senate.
“The White House has to deal with so many issues, that to get them to focus on ANWR when we want them to is difficult,” he said. “The White House has to stay on board in a proactive fashion.”
Union support can help focus the White House at the appropriate times, Herrera said.
“Who but Jerry Hood can walk into the White House whenever he wants and talk to the appropriate person about the ANWR issue and what the White House is doing?”
Budget reconciliation is complex process Arctic Power has engaged a parliamentarian for advice on the nuances of the budget reconciliation process, Herrera said, adding that Arctic Power must manage the complicated parliamentary procedures on budget reconciliation better than its opponents.
“There are very few people in D.C. who understand the ramifications of this process,” he said. “We want to watch that process very closely because it is critical.”
It is not mandatory that Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill; Congress did not have one in the recently ended session, Herrera said.
“The new (Senate) budget chairman, Don Nickles of Oklahoma, is determined to have one and if there is one and it passes through his committee, then that is the vehicle to which we attach ANWR,” Herrera said. “Denied that vehicle, the chances of opening ANWR in this 108th Congress diminish to almost zero”
Opponents can call a table motion to take any ANWR provision out of the reconciliation bill, and they probably will, Herrera said, but that can be voted down with a simple majority. Opponents also could come up with a like amount of money to substitute for ANWR proceeds, but that is unlikely, given current economic constraints.
“In reality, when everybody is fighting for every dollar they can get, it is quite difficult to find an extra $1.5 billion and substitute that for ANWR,” he said.
Keep those cards and letters flowing If Alaskans are too quiet about their support for ANWR development, the message won’t get through to Washington, D.C., lawmakers, Herrera said.
“Unless the people in Washington, D.C., know about this support, it doesn’t count for much. It’s got to be active, proactive support,” he said. “Senators say, ‘Why is it that I haven’t had a single letter from Alaskans? Tell me, prove to me that the state of Alaska wants this to happen.’”
An opposing message is being delivered regularly.
“The greens (with the help of the Gwich’in) will tell people in D.C. that Alaskans oppose ANWR,” Herrera said. “The only way the sort of noise that will create can be nullified and rectified is by the rest of us, the 70 percent of Alaskans who positively want ANWR to be opened, to have their voice heard.
“Once again we need to write, we need to call, we need to email, and we need to do everything we can to influence this issue in Congress, because those things all count.”
Two items to watch Herrera said ANWR drilling supporters must be aware of a study of oil development on the North Slope by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, with results due in February. Arctic Power is not aware of the results of the study, he said, but the report will likely contain some positive, and some negative aspects of environmental effects of oil activity. Opponents of ANWR development can be expected to use portions of the report to influence lawmakers, he said.
“The timing of it is okay to the extent that that will be the beginning of the debate, it won’t be the time when we’re ready for our first vote,” he said.
Herrera said the industry must also be mindful that any provision to open ANWR will contain a limit on the footprint of oil development. The industry must plan to use that footprint wisely, he said.
“The 2,000 acres issue — only 2,000 acres can be used for production — we have to watch that one,” he said. “We should be seriously thinking about using the opportunity before the first lease sale to gain more information about the coastal plain.”
Herrera said the oil industry would be well advised to spend some money to conduct seismic and other tests.
“The onus is on the oil industry — they will pay, but if we don’t do it — they will pay the consequences,” he said. “What if we had development on 1,900 acres and suddenly a mammoth 8 billion barrel field is found?”
Despite the pitfalls, Herrera said the overall conditions are positive for passage of an ANWR development package.
“If this is not a time when ANWR can be opened, there never has been and never will be one,” Herrera said. “This is our last hurrah. It’s one that we should win; it’s one that we can win.
“It requires the input of all Alaskans that believe in the future of this area, and our state in general, because it won’t happen just by wishing it to happen — this is a proactive effort.”
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