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July 2015

Vol. 20, No. 28 Week of July 12, 2015

USF&W publishes its polar bear plan

Says main priority for protecting bears is limiting greenhouse gas emissions; management of human interactions also to continue

ALAN BAILEY

Petroleum News

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has published a draft polar bear conservation management plan, specifying what the agency sees as the threats to the bear population and the steps needed to prevent the future extinction of the species. The development of the plan comes as a legal requirement stemming from the listing in 2008 of the bears as threatened under the terms of the Endangered Species Act. The listing of the polar bear has caused concern among people with economic interests in the Arctic, given potential restriction on economic activity as a consequence of measures taken to protect the bears.

The newly published conservation plan says that, with global warming and the resulting loss of Arctic sea ice being the prime threat to the bear’s survival, the focus must be on global action to address the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The plan also anticipates the continuation of current programs designed to limit the impacts of human actions on bears.

Comments on the draft plan are required by Aug. 20.

Updated models

Fish and Wildlife says it has updated its climate and bear population models since the bear was listed in 2008. One model now assumes greenhouse gas emissions continuing at current rates, while the other model assumes a leveling out of emissions by around mid-century, with emissions declining thereafter.

“Outcomes for polar bear populations are projected to worsen over time through the end of the century under both scenarios, but the long-term persistence of polar bears may be possible if global greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized at or below the modeled level,” Fish and Wildlife said in a July 2 press release announcing the release of the draft conservation plan.

Although the plan acknowledges potential future concerns resulting from oil and gas activities, contamination from oil spills and increased Arctic shipping, the plan says that, with these factors not being identified as threats to the bears, the activities have no associated polar bear recovery criteria. However, the plan outlines actions to minimize the risks of contamination from oil and chemical spills; to protect bear denning habitat from human disturbance and industrial activity; to minimize human-bear conflicts; and to conduct research. The plan also addresses actions to better manage subsistence harvesting of the bears. And the plan will serve as the U.S. contribution to an international action plan being developed by the five polar bear range countries, Canada, Denmark, Norway, the Russian Federation and the United States, Fish and Wildlife says.

“Polar bear conservation requires a global commitment to curb the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” said U.S. Fish and Wildlife Regional Director Geoffrey Haskett. “Until that happens, we’re going to do everything within our power to give the polar bear a chance to survive. That’s what the plan’s about.”

Implementation team

Fish and Wildlife proposes transitioning its current polar bear recovery team into a conservation plan implementation team, to facilitate the carrying out of actions under the plan. The agency says that it anticipates the plan being a living document, subject to periodic revisions as new insights arise. The agency has set specific criteria for determining whether the polar bear population is recovering - those criteria include the adult female survival rate; the ratio of yearlings to adult females; the bear population carrying capacity of the bear’s habitat; and the rate of human-caused removal of the animals.

In terms of global warming and the global emissions of greenhouse gases, the factors that Fish and Wildlife sees as the bear’s primary threats, the agency says that it will engage in a science-based communications effort, highlighting an urgent need for emissions reductions. The objective will be to try to ensure that the appropriate entities in the United States and elsewhere take actions to address human causes of global warming, the conservation plan says.

The plan also says that Fish and Wildlife will support polar bear conservation actions in the other polar bear range countries.

Continuing efforts

Actions to manage human-polar bear conflicts will include a continuation both of partnerships with the North Slope oil and gas industry, and of polar bear patrols led by the North Slope Borough, the plan says. And Fish and Wildlife will collaborate with the North Slope Borough, the Alaska Nanuuq Commission and others on robust and sustainable subsistence management strategies for the Chukchi Sea and the southern Beaufort Sea polar bear populations, the plan says. In terms of disturbance to polar bear denning habitat, the plan envisages a continuation of current efforts to detect and map this habitat, coupled with efforts to minimize development and disturbance on the Beaufort Sea barrier islands, where denning habitat is limited.

In the interests of minimizing risks associated with oil spill contamination, the draft plan envisages updating oil spill modeling, and anticipating overlaps between oil spill risks and polar bear activities and important habitats. Fish and Wildlife plans to comment on proposed activities that pose potential oil spill risks in U.S. polar bear habitat. The agency also expects to develop and distribute standard operating procedures for the deterrence of bears and the rescue and handling of oiled bears, the plan says.

The plan also proposes continuing research into factors such as polar bear population dynamics, the ecology of the bears’ habitat and bear interactions with humans, to further develop and refine the criteria used to meet the plan’s goals.

Fish and Wildlife has pegged the annual cost of implementing the conservation plan at something in excess of $13 million.





USGS says GHG primary polar bear threat

New research has confirmed that global warming and the associated melting of Arctic sea ice form the primary threat to the long-term survival of the polar bear, the U.S. Geological Survey said June 30.

“This conclusion holds true under both a reduced greenhouse gas emission scenario that stabilizes climate warming and another scenario where emissions and warming continue at the current pace,” the survey said.

Of particular concern is the possibility of the summer ice-free period lengthening beyond four months, as is forecast for the second half of the current century, according to the scenario in which the current rate of warming continues. Polar bears rely on sea ice as a platform for hunting seals but would have to retreat to land if the ice completely melts, the survey said.

“Other research this year has shown that terrestrial foods available to polar bears during these land-bound months are unlikely to help polar bears to adapt to sea ice loss,” the survey said.

Other stressors to the bears, such as trans-Arctic shipping; oil and gas exploration; disease and contaminants; sustainable harvests; and takes in defense of life have negligible impacts on polar bear populations compared with the much larger impacts of sea ice loss, the survey said.

And, while managing threats other than greenhouse gas emissions could slow the decline in polar bear populations, “the most optimistic prognosis for polar bears would require immediate and aggressive reductions to greenhouse gas emissions that would limit global warming to less than 2 C above pre-industrial levels,” the survey said.

—ALAN BAILEY


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