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Average ANS crude volumes for July edge back toward April levels
Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
Average daily North Slope production volumes posted by the Alaska Department of Revenue’s Tax Division continue to edge up in July, from 450,343 barrels per day on July 1 to a high of 498,562 bpd on July 17. The average for the month so far, on July 20, the last day for which data was posted when this story was written, was 487,908 bpd.
ANS volumes, which started the year at an average of 514,887 bpd in January, have been impacted by Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. prorations, April 24 through May 22, and more strongly by a 100,000 bpd cut in Alaska production announced by ConocoPhillips on April 30, set for June, with ramp down to begin in late May. The company said June 30 that it expected to begin restoring Alaska production in July.
The Alyeska prorations affected all producers, with a 10% cut, estimated at 50,000 bpd, beginning April 24, increased to 15% on May 8, reduced to 5% on May 15 and lifted May 22. Alyeska prorates production in reaction to inventory volumes at the Valdez Marine Terminal, market conditions and tanker scheduling.
ANS average volumes fell steadily through the first part of the year, averaging 509,837 bpd in February, 502,250 bpd in March, 490,252 bpd in April, 427,676 bpd in May and 393,387 bpd in June.
Price drop The ConocoPhillips production cut was a reaction to the drop in demand due to COVID-19 and the resulting steep drop in oil prices.
The ANS West Coast average spot price by month, as posted by the Tax Division, bottomed this April at $16.54 per barrel, dropping from $65.48 in January to $54.48 in February and $33.21 in March.
By May, the ANS average price was $28.21 per barrel and by June it was at $41.78, still well below recent prices. In 2019 the lowest monthly average was $60.40 per barrel in January of that year; in 2018 the lowest per barrel price was $66.20 per barrel in February of that year.
ConocoPhillips said its Alaska cuts would come from the Kuparuk River and Colville River units, and the drop in production in those areas was evident - even though the Tax Division merges Kuparuk production with Nikaitchuq and Oooguruk - with Kuparuk going from an average of 129,353 bpd in March, to 121,933 bpd in April, 89,150 bpd in May and 66,282 bpd in June, before climbing again in July to an average, as of July 20, of 128,026 bpd.
The division reports the Colville River unit as Alpine and its satellites, and production there went from 59,320 bpd in January to 55,716 bpd in April, 41,539 bpd in May and 21,815 bpd in June, before rebounding to an average of 51,358 per day as of July 20.
- KRISTEN NELSON
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