|
Herrera says cloudy crystal ball shows: Oil price status quo, until it’s upset ANWR still has chance; some predict Congress will go back into session after elections to finish appropriation bills; energy bill could see action then Allen Baker PNA Contributing Writer
The future direction of oil prices is extremely muddy at the moment, says Roger Herrera, a former Alaska oil company executive who’s now working as a consultant for Arctic Power.
“I would say the status quo — which is eminently acceptable to everyone — will stay for a while, until something knocks it out of kilter,” he said in a recent PNA interview. “There are so many unknowns out there; it’s a pure guess right now. There are no obvious logical trends that one can suggest with a degree of conviction will continue.” Asia an unknown Beyond the obvious political ramifications of the continued unrest in Israel, the giant Asian economies, Japan, India and China, are a big question mark as the world economy seems to be sluggishly awakening from its recent doldrums.
“Certainly China has had a great influence on industry demand,” Herrera said.
“All these things are hanging out there, not to mention the Middle East and Russia (on the supply side). People are accepting that Russia will continue to increase its output and put it into the Western markets.”
Consumers are still getting a good deal, he noted, with prices at the pump lower than they were before the big oil shocks a few decades ago. ANWR possible after elections As for Arctic Power’s work on opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, Herrera says Congress may yet go along with the idea this session.
“No doubt it’s a long shot to expect ANWR to be in the measure that comes out of the conference committee,” Herrera said.
“I think (Senate Majority Leader Tom) Daschle will can an energy bill if it has ANWR in it,” Herrera said.
But the Democratic leaders want the ethanol provisions in the Senate version, and that could be balanced against ANWR.
“If the bill comes out of conference committee with ANWR in it, it will be very difficult for the Senate not to pass it,” he said. “Filibusters of bills coming out of conference are extremely rare.”
But the conference committee is unlikely to bring out a measure until later this summer, and with the election looming, members of Congress could be busy with their campaigns and major action could be delayed.
“There’s one school of thought that Congress will go back into session after the election because they won’t get their appropriations bills finished,” he said.
The energy bill could be on a stack of unfinished business that could see action then.
| 