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Pipeline capacity for the future Can existing oil pipelines handle production from potential major developments around the Colville River delta and to the west? ALAN BAILEY Petroleum News
With ConocoPhillips planning new developments in the northeastern National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, Brooks Range Petroleum anticipating bringing its Mustang development into production in the Colville Delta region and with Armstrong Energy and Caelus Energy both announcing major oil finds, is Alaska heading for a crunch when it comes to options for delivering oil from the western part of the North Slope to the trans-Alaska pipeline?
As a matter of interest, Petroleum News has taken a look at how the throughput capacities of the current pipeline systems compare with potential future potential oil production rates. It would seem that in the interests of minimizing project costs it would be desirable to use the existing pipeline infrastructure as much as possible for the future shipment of oil, although transportation decisions would presumably depend on a range of factors including the condition of aging infrastructure, transportation fees and the competing needs of different projects.
Two pipelines The two key pipelines that ship oil from the west are the Kuparuk pipeline and the Alpine oil pipeline. A Kuparuk extension links the Kuparuk line to the Alpine line. Originally built to deliver oil from the Kuparuk River field, the Kuparuk line has a capacity of 350,000 barrels per day. According to data published by the Alaska Department of Revenue, by 2015 production from Kuparuk, including its satellite fields, had declined to some 105,000 bpd, thus leaving plenty of spare capacity, including the shipment of oil from the offshore fields of Oooguruk and Nikaitchuq.
Oil from the Alpine field and the Colville River unit, passing through the Alpine line, uses a significant chunk of that capacity. The Alpine line has a capacity of 145,000 bpd.
According to projected North Slope oil production, published by Revenue, total Kuparuk pipeline throughput in 2018, with production from Kuparuk, the Kuparuk satellites, the Alpine fields and the Alpine satellites, including the new CD5 satellite, would amount to 202,800 bpd. However, ConocoPhillips has indicated that it anticipates its Greater Mooses Tooth 1 development in NPR-A coming on line in late 2018, with production peaking at 30,000 bpd, presumably at some later date. Throughput in the Kuparuk line in late 2018 could perhaps head towards 220,000 bpd, a volume well below the pipeline’s maximum capacity.
At the same time, throughput in the Alpine line might hit about 72,100 bpd, less than half of its capacity.
2021 production levels Things appear to become trickier in 2021, the year in which Armstrong suggests its Nanushuk development might come on line, with a potential peak rate of 120,000 bpd. Assuming that Nanushuk feeds oil into the existing pipeline system, the Kuparuk pipeline ought be able to handle the potential throughput of some 325,800 bpd, although that would presumably depend on what additional oil ConocoPhillips brings online, perhaps from its Greater Mooses Tooth 2 development or a potential development the company is considering at Fiord West. And at that point it looks as if the Alpine line would still be running well below capacity.
But a Nanushuk development coming on line in 2021 could swamp the Alpine line - Armstrong has indicated to Petroleum News that it anticipates connecting Nanushuk into the Kuparuk pipeline, not Alpine.
And oil production from Smith Bay, although at a later date, at a potential rate of 200,000 bpd would clearly exceed the capabilities of the Alpine line, and may also, in combination with production from other fields, exceed the capacity of the Kuparuk line.
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