|
Crude forecast down in FY 2026, up in FY '27 with Pikka volumes
Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
The Alaska Department of Revenue's fall forecast, released in December, is projecting an increase in North Slope production, up to more than 500,000 barrels per day in fiscal year 2027, as Pikka volumes -- expected to begin showing up in FY '26 -- are felt for the entire 2027 fiscal year, which begins July 1. In FY '25 North Slope production averaged 468,000 bpd, up from 461,000 bpd in FY '24. The FY '26 forecast is 457,000 bpd, increasing in FY '27 to 517,800 bpd. Decreases follow in FY '28 and FY '29, before beginning to increase again in FY '30 as Willow is projected to come online, to 517,000 bpd, increasing to 571,800 bpd in FY '31, 626,500 bpd in FY '32, 668,400 bpd in FY '33 and then gradually declining through the rest of the 10-year forecast period to average 659,900 bpd in FY '35.
The department also provides low and high cases, with the low case projecting ANS production from an average of 418,405 bpd in FY '26 to 419,514 bpd in FY '35 and the high case projecting production from an average of 495,328 bpd in FY '26 to 967,542 bpd in FY '35.
Alaska North Slope oil prices are forecast to drop from $74.15 per barrel in FY '25 to $65.48 per barrel in FY '26 and $62 per barrel in FY '27 before beginning a gradual rise and ending the forecast period at $73 per barrel in FY '35.
Increases in some areas The Department of Revenue shows production by groupings of fields, with the exception of Prudhoe, Kuparuk and Point Thomson.
While most of the groupings show declines over the forecast period, there are also increases.
The largest increases are from the groups which include Pikka and Willow: NPR-A (Greater Mooses Tooth, Willow) and Other (Alkaid, Pikka, Quokka, Talitha, Theta West).
The forecast for NPR-A starts at 8,500 bpd in FY '26, peaks at 152,100 bpd in FY '33 and ends the forecast cycle at 138,900 bpd in FY '35.
In the Other grouping, FY '26 is forecast at 7,000 bpd, with production rising steadily to 130,100 bpd in FY '35.
There are also increases in the Kuparuk Satellites grouping (Coyote, Nuna-Torok, Tabasco, Tarn, West Sak); Alpine (Alpine, CRU-Minke, Fiord West, Mustang, Nanuq, Narwhal, Qannik); and Point Thomson.
Kuparuk Satellites production is forecast at 38,400 bpd in FY '26, peaks at 45,600 bpd in FY '34 and declines somewhat to 43,900 bpd in FY '35.
Alpine FY '26 production is forecast at 28,900 bpd, rises to 39,100 bpd in FY '34 and declines to 38,400 bpd in FY '35.
Point Thomson production is forecast at 3,800 bpd in FY '26, peaks at 8,300 bpd in FY '28 and gradually declines to 6,700 bpd in FY '35.
Declines in most areas Over the forecast period most groupings show declines: Prudhoe Bay; PBU Satellites (Aurora, Borealis, Midnight Sun, Milne Point, Orion, Polaris, Sag River); GPMA (Lisburne, Niakuk, Point McIntyre, Raven); Kuparuk; Endicott (Badami, DIU-Minke, Eider, Endicott, Sag Delta); and Offshore (Hooligan, Nikaitchuq, Northstar, Oooguruk).
Prudhoe Bay is forecast to average 183,800 bpd in FY '26 (exclusive of its satellites, which the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission includes in its monthly tallies), declining over the 10-year period of the forecast to 164,600 bpd on FY '35.
The PBU Satellites grouping also declines, from an average of 81,300 bpd forecast for FY '26 to 68,500 bpd in FY '35.
The GPMA grouping is forecast to decline from an average of 24,800 bpd in FY '26 to 15,500 bpd in FY '35.
Kuparuk (exclusive of the satellites which AOGCC includes) is forecast to decline from 47,500 bpd in FY '26 to 31,800 bpd in FY '35.
The Endicott grouping declines from an average of 6,900 bpd in FY '26 to 4,800 bpd in FY '35.
The Offshore grouping declines from an average of 26,100 bpd in FY '26 to 16,700 bpd in FY '35.
Petroleum revenues Unrestricted petroleum revenue constituted 30% of the state's FY '25 unrestricted revenue and 4% of the restricted revenue. For FY '25 total unrestricted general fund revenues were $6.3 billion. For FY '26 total UGF revenues are forecast to decrease by $181 million, primarily due to a lower oil price forecast and higher expected lease expenditures.
The state has four sources of revenue from petroleum: property tax, corporate income tax; oil and gas production tax; and royalties.
In FY '25, unrestricted petroleum revenue was $1.910 billion. (Restricted petroleum revenue for FY '25 was 563.3 million, bringing total petroleum revenue to $2.474 billion.)
In all forecast years the total for unrestricted petroleum revenue is lower than in FY '25, starting with a 25.4% reduction for FY '26 to $1.425 billion, and gradually rising to $1.853 billion in FY '35.
North Slope allowable lease expenditures, operating and capital, were $8.659 billion in FY '25, and are forecast to drop to $8.238 billion in FY '26 and then to be somewhat lower through the forecast period, ending at $7.682 billion in FY '35.
--KRISTEN NELSON
|
