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Saudi Arabia: A disaster waiting to happen?
Oil and gas consultant Roger Herrera has long considered Saudi Arabia a "disaster waiting to happen."
According to a Sept. 26 article and analysis published on Strat4.com, a major international forecasting group, his concerns might prove valid.
Since Sept. 11, however, the Saudi government has sent mixed messages to the United States. On the one hand, at the request of the United States it has severed diplomatic relations with Afghanistan’s Taliban government. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has refused to allow the United States to conduct retaliatory strikes against Afghanistan from Saudi territory.
According to an article on Strat4’s web site, titled "Saudi Royal politics are quicksand for U.S.," the country’s seemingly contradictory moves "stem from the debate between government factions over engagement with the United States."
The Saudi government is "divided between factions that favor working with the United States -- partly because of economic benefits and the resulting boost to their own power -- and those who oppose engagement with the West," Strat4 said.
This internal debate "reflects a larger split within Saudi society over the extent and context of engagement with the United States and on the impact that engagement has on Saudi domestic and foreign policy. As the United States prepares for war against an Islamic threat, this debate will escalate, further straining Saudi-U.S. relations.
Rising Islamic fundamentalism "Ultimately the quarrel stands to undermine future military and economic cooperation between the two countries. It also could widen the divide within the royal family and possibly set the stage for a power shift," Strat4 said.
The forecasting group said King Fahd’s long-failing health, since a serious stroke in 1995, poses a "serious question about succession to the Saudi throne." A monarch for 17 years, Fahd left Saudi Arabia for Spain on Aug. 24. He has not returned to Saudi Arabia, although "Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan reported Sept.15 that the king was in excellent health, and remained in Spain on holiday," Strat4 said.
Initially Prince Abdullah is set to become king when Fahd dies. But the 75-year-old Abdullah has not yet named his own successor, which Start4 said, This … seems likely to cloud the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia" and "trigger another round of intrigue within the royal family and generate doubt within the population at large, which is already divided by money, tribal ties and rising Islamic fundamentalism."
Impact on global energy politics Start4’s analysis, titled "The global energy crunch: will Saudi Arabia change the equation?" said that Saudi Arabia’s refusal to permit the United States to use the Prince Sultan Air Base for Refusal to allow the United States use of the Prince Sultan Air Base for "retaliatory strikes against any Muslim nation came as an apparent surprise to Washington. Only days before, Air Force Lt. Gen. Charles Walk, commander of the U.S. Central Command's air operations, moved his home base from South Carolina to Saudi Arabia."
At first glance the refusal appeared to be a reversal of Saudi policy, but Start4 said "another explanation is more likely: It may have been the result of compromise between pro-U.S. and anti-U.S. factions in Riyadh. After rejecting Washington's request, the government moved quickly to sever ties with the Taliban -- appeasing the United States. The government, however, was likely less concerned with appeasement than maintaining a crucial political balance within the royal family and Saudi society," which is highly complex and is split into numerous factions.
"Due to the important relationship between the House of Saud and the strictly conservative Wahhabi form of Islam, the kingdom's relationship with non-Muslim nations is a constant source of tension," Strat4 said.
"… Following the Gulf War, Saudi Arabia altered its policy and forbade the U.S. military to launch air strikes against other countries, including Iraq," Strat4 said.
For complete access to this analysis, article and accompanying documents go to start4.com
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