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IEA report forecasts soaring Chinese oil imports International Energy Agency says economic growth has outstripped energy resources; meeting energy needs will be one of most difficult challenges Andreas Evagora Associated Press Writer
China’s long-term level of oil imports will outstrip by three times the country’s own forecast, the International Energy Agency said March 20. The figures suggest that China will become a far more influential player in the global oil market, and in the oil-rich Middle East, the agency said.
“China’s economic growth has outstripped its own energy resources,” said William Ramsey, deputy director of the IEA, part of the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
“China is an energy superpower second only to the United States. Meeting its energy needs is one of the most difficult challenges China will face.”
With its own oil supplies stagnant and a rapidly-growing economy fueling energy demand, China became a net importer of oil in 1993 and currently imports one million barrels a day.
In “China’s Worldwide Quest for Energy Security,” a report released March 20, the IEA forecasts that imports will rise to eight million barrels a day in 2020 — roughly three times China’s own estimates.
Global production is predicted to rise from the current figure of 75 million barrels a day to 111 million barrels a day in 2020.
The disparity between IEA and Chinese estimates is accounted for by differences in how new technology, energy efficiency and offshore development will impact the country’s demand for oil imports.
China already world’s second largest energy consumer “Eight million barrels a day is a high number,” Ramsey said at a news conference. “The market would be concerned with that amount in a tight oil market but can accommodate it in terms of availability. It is a matter of setting up new commercial relationships without conflict.”
China has made strenuous attempts to exploit its domestic resources, but the IEA says that the country’s economic growth will “overwhelm” those efforts.
Increasing dependency on Middle East China is already the world’s second largest energy consumer after the United States, third largest producer of coal and sixth largest supplier of crude oil.
The IEA says that China will be the second largest importer of oil well before 2020. Soaring demand for international oil will likely see it play a much greater role in the oil-rich Middle East.
“There is an inevitability of increasing dependency on the Middle East for China,” Ramsey said. China has invested in Iraq China has already tapped Middle East markets.
In 1997, it imported 47.5 percent of its oil from the region, up from 39.4 percent in 1990, according to IEA figures.
China has already invested in two oil fields in Iraq and has announced plans for joint ventures in Iran and Saudi Arabia.
To meet growing energy demands, China will look to diversify its energy sources, both at home and abroad, said Wu Jianmin, China’s ambassador to France, with natural gas and nuclear energy playing a greater role.
“Our new strategy is to develop resources in the western part of China,” Wu said.
“One of the top priorities is a 4,300- kilometer (2,300-mile) gas pipeline from Shanshan of China to Shanghai.”
Present at the IEU news conference, the ambassador did not comment on the agency’s report.
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