And the winner is…..Canada?

Gary Park

The race will involve the United States, China and India. And the winner will be Canada.

That’s the reading of U.S. energy consultant Henry Groppe, founder and partner of Houston-based Groppe, Long & Littell.

The battle for oil supplies among the two most populous countries on the planet and the largest energy consumer will unfold over the next 15 years and Canada will be the “happy recipient of a bidding war,” he said in a speech organized by Canaccord Capital.

Because of Canada’s growing supplies from the oil sands he said it will be strongly placed to “bargain very strenuously to get the highest possible price” for its oil.

Within 10 years, Groppe expects Canada will be the largest oil producer outside of Eastern Europe and OPEC, leaving the United States, Norway, the United Kingdom, China and Mexico in its wake.

He challenged what he said was a U.S. belief that high oil prices won’t last and for that reason there is no urgent need for U.S. companies to invest in the oil sands.

But he said the reluctance to make new long-term investments will change inside the next three years as rising demand from China and India makes it clear that oil at US$35-$40 a barrel is fast disappearing.

Groppe said “energy is going to cost a lot more (and) any part of the economy that uses energy is going to suffer.”