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BP review finds world oil supply more diverse Company’s 52nd statistical review says non-OPEC production increasing Petroleum News Anchorage Staff
World oil supply is becoming more diverse and world oil production capacity comfortably exceeds world oil demand, said BP chief economist Peter Davies in a June 10 statement.
“As a result, producers were able to meet the needs of oil consumers during the Iraq war and during unplanned supply disruptions in Venezuela and Nigeria. Consuming nations were not required to tap their emergency reserves. This is good news for those concerned about energy security, but it should not lead to complacency,” Davies said at the launching of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2003.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, while using spare capacity of almost 4 million barrels a day to keep the market supplied during the war, cut its average daily output by 1.87 million barrels a day in response to weak global oil demand and a 1.45 million barrel-a-day increase in non-OPEC production, BP said. OPEC production has declined in three of the last four years.
“The story is one of supply momentum that looks set to continue,” Davies said. “Russian oil production is up 25 percent in three years and Russia has been joined by a new group of oil producing basins, across several continents and regions, that have begun to grow rapidly.” Non-OPEC production increases Production from Russia, the Caspian, the deepwater Atlantic Basin and Canada is up 3.3 million barrels a day (26.5 percent) in three years and has the potential to increase another 5 million barrels a day by 2007, BP said.
China accounted for 68.5 percent of the increase in global primary energy consumption in 2002 and has become a major energy consumer and importer. Consumption of coal, which accounts for 66 percent of Chinese energy use, grew a massive 27.9 percent. Oil consumption increased 5.8 percent or 332,000 barrels a day, accounting for all of the world’s oil consumption growth in 2002. China replaced Japan as the world’s second largest oil consumer. Natural gas consumption growing Natural gas is the world’s preferred non-transport fuel, BP said. Outside the Former Soviet Union gas consumption has grown 3.4 percent a year over the past decade and its share of total energy consumption is now roughly equal to coal at 24 percent.
U.S. gas consumption grew 3.9 percent in 2002 as North American gas production fell 1.8 percent. Imported liquefied natural gas is filling part of the gap. Producers are now considering options for delivering new sources of pipeline gas and LNG to this growing gas market.
Commercial (non-hydro) renewable energies are growing rapidly, but their contribution to total world electricity generation remains small (1.7 percent in 2000 versus 1 percent in 1990), BP said. Oil prices up slightly, consumption flat Brent oil prices averaged $25.19 a barrel in 2002, up slightly on the 2001 average price of $24.77 and well above the post-1986 annual average of $19.40. Prices during 2002 ranged from a low of around $18 per barrel in mid-January to peak just before the end of the year at $32.
Global oil consumption was broadly flat, increasing 290,000 barrels a day from 75.5 to 75.7 million barrels a day. All of the increase is attributable to China where oil consumption increased 5.8 percent or 332,000 barrels a day.
Global oil production declined 415,000 barrels a day, or 0.7 percent, from 74.4 million to 73.9 million barrels a day. OPEC daily oil production fell to 28.2 million barrels a day, a drop of 1.87 million barrels a day (6.4 percent). The steep fall resulted from a number of unplanned disruptions and because some OPEC producers, primarily Saudi Arabia, curtailed production in response to weak demand and to a significant 1.45 million barrel per day increase in non-OPEC oil output. Large daily production increases occurred in Russia (640,000 barrels), Kazakhstan (150,000 barrels), Canada (170,000 barrels), Angola (160,000 barrels) and Brazil (160,000 barrels). Natural gas consumption up World consumption of natural gas increased in 2002 by a relatively strong 2.8 percent on the strength of a 3.9 percent increase in U.S. consumption and a 7 percent increase in non-OECD Asia Pacific consumption. Growth in natural gas consumption outpaced growth in world primary energy and its share of total energy consumption is now roughly equal to coal at 24 percent.
Global natural gas production increased 1.4 percent, from 2,493 billion cubic meters to 2,527 billion cubic meters. North America was the only region to experience a production decline, falling 1.8 percent from 779 to 766 billion cubic meters. A price-driven drop in drilling activity explains some of the production decrease, but the maturity of U.S. and Canadian gas producing basins was also a factor. Coal fastest growing fuel Coal was the fastest growing fuel in 2002 with coal consumption increasing 6.9 percent in 2002 on the strength of an extraordinary reported increase in China of 27.9 percent. Excluding China, world consumption increased just 0.6 percent.
Consumption of nuclear power increased 1.5 percent, with most of the increase coming in Asia. World consumption of hydroelectric power increased 1.3 percent from 2001 but was still less than in 2000. Nuclear and hydroelectric power each account for about 6 percent of total world energy consumption. Review available on net This is the 52nd edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
The BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2003 is published on the internet at www.bp.com/centres/energy where data can be viewed and downloaded.
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