EIA responds to Murkowski request for ANWR impact

Kristen Nelson

Opening the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil development would likely increase U.S. oil production, the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy said in response to a request from Sen. Frank Murkowski, R-Alaska, for an analysis.

Based on mean estimates of available resources, the EIA said, “opening ANWR to crude oil development is expected to add 800,000 barrels per day to U.S. crude oil production in 2020, nine years after production in ANWR is projected to begin.”

The 800,000 bpd estimate, the EIA said, would reduce U.S. oil exports by 2 percent.

U.S. Geological Survey studies suggest that between 5.7 billion and 16 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil exist in the coastal plain area of ANWR, with a mean estimate of 10.4 billion barrels. “Technically recoverable,” the EIA said, “are resources that can be recovered with today’s technology.”

The USGS estimates include oil on Native lands and in state waters out to a three-mile boundary. The mean estimated size of federal resources is 7.7 billion barrels.

The time to production is estimated at seven to 12 years from approval to explore, but the EIA said “the time to first production could vary significantly based on time required for leasing after approval to develop is awarded, and that environmental considerations and the possibility of drilling restrictions also could significantly affect projected schedules.”

The EIA said oil in the coastal plain is divided into many fields, with the largest projected field in ANWR estimated at 1.4 billion barrels, with two fields at 700 million barrels, five at 340 million barrels and a large number of smaller fields.

This compares to 13 billion barrels expected to be recovered from Prudhoe Bay and 413 million barrels estimated to be recovered at Alpine.

The EIA said there are several areas of uncertainty about the impact of opening ANWR on U.S. energy markets. There has not been an extensive geological study of ANWR and determining the actual size of the resource will take further study and exploration. The size of reservoirs will determine the development rate: “If the reservoirs are larger than expected, production will be larger in earlier years,” the EIA said.

The EIA based development costs on other North Slope development — if costs to develop ANWR are significantly higher, production may be delayed.