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Canada edges further away from early ratification of Kyoto Federal government dithers over deadline, while provinces, industries mount a statistical argument against ratifying measures to reduce greenhouse gases Gary Park PNA Canadian Correspondent
Canadian are just beginning to hear the costs of imposing cuts on greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol — with the Alberta government and the petroleum industry mounting a full-frontal campaign.
Meanwhile, the Canadian government is spreading confusion and conflict as its grapples with the numbers.
Environment Minister David Anderson said earlier this year that headway was being made in positioning Canada “on the right side of history” — and that the Kyoto terms would be ratified in June or, at the latest, August.
Now, he insists: “We have no deadline, we have no deadline at all.”
While the federal government dithers, it is being buried under an avalanche of economic doomsday numbers from the provincial governments and industry organizations, who fear the Kyoto cuts would force Canada to reduce its energy use by 20 percent.
The tension levels boiled over in mid-February, when Alberta Premier Ralph Klein startled Prime Minister Jean Chretien at a joint news conference during a Canadian trade mission to Russia. Provincial impact feared In what was viewed as a serious breach of protocol, Klein used an international platform to air a domestic dispute, when he presented a letter to Chretien from the provinces outlining the damaging impact on Canada’s economy of Kyoto.
He told Chretien that ratification would cost the economy C$4.5 billion a year, not the C$500 million the federal government has estimated.
That unleased a torrent of projections:
• Alberta Environment Minister Lorne Taylor said Canadian natural gas prices, at current rates, would climb to C$4 per thousand cubic feet compared with only C$2.70 in Mexico, which is exempt from Kyoto. “Are U.S. buyers going to buy Canadian gas or Mexican gas?” he asked. “I think the answer is obvious.” Canada’s gas exports were worth C$28.5 billion last contract year to producers.
• The Alberta government said its petroleum-driven economy would lose up to C$5.5 billion a year and cost 70,000 jobs, along with untold investment in the oil sands.
• Alberta also said its minimum projections for emissions reductions would increase operating costs for light and medium oil by 5 percent and 10 percent for heavy oil, resulting in a 34 percent drop in production after 10 years.
• The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters said Kyoto would permanently wipe out up to 450,000 factory jobs, or 20 percent of the country’s manufacturing base of 2.2 million workers, by 2010 and rob the Canadian economy of C$5 billion a year in production.
• The CME said Canadian consumers would face price hikes of 60 percent to 100 percent for energy sources such as natural gas, electricity and gasoline. “The cumulative impact of meeting Canada’s Kyoto target would be the equivalent of a one-year recession,” the CME said. Feds says data old The strongest response from the federal government was a claim that the various estimates were based on old data and failed to take into account the economic spin-offs from pursuing renewable energy sources and developing technology to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
But the widely held view is that Anderson has hit a wall on ratification.
It is more than four years since Canada signed on to Kyoto, along with 150 other countries and, even now, the government has yet to figure out the real costs of compliance and how the burden will be spread among the provinces and industrial sectors.
Seizing the chance to create even more dissension, Alberta Energy Minister Murray Smith said Kyoto would leave Canada at the whim of international judges.
Instead, Smith said, Canada should endorse a blueprint proposed by President George W. Bush to reduce emissions through voluntary means and tax incentives.
“Prime Minister Chretien could strike a real blow for North American leadership in reduced greenhouse gases by becoming involved in a continental NAFTA-based, energy partnership,” he said.
“A continental climate change plan would help the environment without derailing progress, innovation, jobs and prosperity,” he told a Calgary conference Feb. 23.
Despite Chretien’s insistence that his government “would like to sign Kyoto,” the gaps within his cabinet are widening. Details to be worked out Natural Resources Minister Herb Dhaliwal said many important details have still to be worked out to ensure the Kyoto targets are “reasonable and fair.”
“Canada’s energy policy has helped fuel growth in the energy industry — growth that has spurred the entire economy. The energy industry is a pillar of our GDP, our prosperity, and our way of life,” he said. “We have no reason to alter Canadian energy policy. It doesn’t make good business sense to do so.”
Even at the most symbolic level, Anderson is becoming an isolated voice in cabinet.
He recently sent a letter urging other cabinet ministers to trade in their government-issued Ford Crown Victorias for hybrids such as the small but ultra-efficient Toyota Prius, which uses both a gasoline engine and electric motor.
The number of ministers willing to sacrifice some leg room? Zero.
“I do want to make sure there’s a clear visual message sent by cabinet,” Anderson said. So far, he conceded, the only message has been a “traditional belief in what is appropriate for a minister.”
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