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Don't forget Canada's Arctic oil, says consulting geologist Mackenzie Delta Beaufort Sea oil reserves have potential to rival those of Alaska, geology similar to ANWR Gary Park PNA Canadian Correspondent
In the helter-skelter of debate over Arctic gas and pipelines, Canada's Mackenzie Delta-Beaufort Sea oil reserves risk being overlooked, despite their potential to rival those of Alaska, says a consulting geologist.
Murray Rodgers, with Canadian Discovery Ltd., said a 1994 Geological Survey of Canada estimate of Delta-Beaufort reserves is likely conservative because it has been based solely on drilling to date.
The Geological Survey of Canada puts the resource at up to 7.2 billion barrels, of which 585 million to 1.44 billion barrels are discovered, with the remaining potential rated at 4.7 billion to 5.8 billion barrels.
Because the Delta-Beaufort lands share a close geological similarity to Prudhoe Bay and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the ultimate resources could challenge those of Alaska, Rodgers said.
But he conceded, in a speech to a recent Calgary conference, that “frontier areas are notorious for being difficult to quantify in the early stages” and as such usually generate a “healthy amount of skepticism.”
U.S. projections have raised ANWR's potential to 31 billion barrels from 17 billion barrels without any drilling, while Prudhoe Bay discoveries are estimated at 9.5 billion barrels with another 3.5 billion barrels of remaining potential, he said.
The 237 wells drilled so far in the Delta-Beaufort region have yielded 53 discoveries from 20 play types.
Arctic success rate high Rodgers said there has been a “phenomenally high success rate” of 28 percent from 130 onshore and 59 offshore exploratory wells, comparing that with Western Canada's 25 percent success rate in the last five years.
The major find so far was the 500 million barrel Amauligak offshore discovery by Gulf Canada Resources Ltd. (now Conoco Canada Ltd.) in 1984 during a wave of exploration sustained by government incentives, although reserves have never reached commercial levels. Very few of the other finds have exceeded 100 million barrels, but because of their widespread nature they point to high potential in deeper waters, Rodgers said.
He said the region contains four main play types: onshore/shallow water, offshore delta, West Beaufort and deepwater, with the onshore/shallow water play at depths of about 50 feet being the dominant gas fairway.
The offshore delta, including the Amauligak field, offers the most promise for oil and could, given its potential to contain up to 2.3 billion barrels, produce discoveries exceeding Amauligak, Rodgers said. Although more oil than gas has been found in the deep water, the play may be gas prone, he said.
Because only one well has been drilled and tested data is scarce on the West Beaufort and offshore delta, but the geology is similar to that of ANWR, Rodgers said, adding “watch what happens along this trend in the next decade” if drilling starts on some of the 60 structures defined by seismic coverage.
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