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EIA: energy usage up 50% by 2050, crude, liquids production up 30%
Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
Global energy usage will increase by nearly 50% between 2018 and 2050 with crude oil production up nearly 30%, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in discussing the reference case in its International Energy Outlook 2019, released Sept. 24.
The outlook’s focus is on consumption, and it finds that most of the growth in consumption comes from non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations, particularly in Asia.
The consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels increases more than 20% in the reference case, EIA said, “driven by non-OECD demand in the transportation and industrial sectors.” Total petroleum and liquid fuels consumption reaches more than 240 quadrillion British thermal units in 2050. EIA said OECD demand remains relatively stable while non-OECD demand increases by some 45%.
Liquids consumed in large quantities include motor gasoline, diesel and jet fuel particularly in the transportation sector, while liquids such as natural gas plant liquids are consumed in large quantities as industrial feedstock.
EIA described its reference case as providing a baseline for measuring impacts, and said it “reflects current trends and relationships among supply, demand, and prices in the future,” and includes some anticipated changes over the 2018-50 period: expected regional and demographic trends; planned changes to infrastructure; and incremental cost and performance improvements. The reference case does not include things like changes to national boundaries and international agreements; major disruptive events; future technological breakthrough; or changes in laws, regulations and stated targets reflected in current policies.
Liquid fuels In non-OECD regions, petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption nearly doubles, with most of the growth in non-OECD Asia, driven by growing populations and expanding economies. “Non-OECD liquid fuels consumption increases 45% during the projection period, growing from 108 quadrillion Btu in 2018 to 156 quadrillion Btu by 2050,” EIA said. Non-OECD Asia will account for some 75% of the global increase in liquid fuels consumption, particularly India which “experiences rapid industrial growth and increased demand for motorized transportation.”
OECD liquid fuels consumption, conversely, declines slowly as demand growth is less than efficiency improvements. In OECD Americas and OECD Asia, demand is relatively unchanged, but liquid fuels consumption falls by 15% in OECD Europe, dropping by some 4 quadrillion Btu to 24 quadrillion Btu in 2050.
EIA said transportation remains the largest consumer of liquid fuels in its reference case. There is significant growth in non-OECD countries, consumption is up about 50% from 2018 to 2050, with transportation responsible for more than half of liquid fuels demand in both OECD and non-OECD countries.
Oil production EIA said in its reference case, world crude oil production is up nearly 30% in 2050, led by production increases in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Most production, however, remains in non-OPEC countries.
Worldwide crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids and other liquid fuels reach 127 million barrels per day in 2050, about 30% above 2018 levels, with crude and lease condensate production growing by 13 million bpd among OPEC members and by 11 million bpd among non-OPEC producers, increases of about 40% for OPEC members and 25% for non-OPEC members.
But, EIA said, non-OPEC countries produce slightly more than 50% of crude oil output through the 2018-50 period, and amount to 55% of global production in 2050.
OPEC crude oil production increases 37% between 2018 and 2050, from 35 million bpd to 48 million bpd, with most production and growth from the Middle East and OPEC continues to provide more than 40% of world oil supplies.
That OPEC production is concentrated in the Middle East, growing from 27 million bpd in 2018 to 39 million bpd. “Production from large low-cost oil resources in the Middle East remains a critical part of global crude oil supply during the projection period,” EIA said.
Non-OPEC The highest levels of non-OPEC production are from Russia and the United States, although late in the period Canada sees considerable growth.
Non-OPEC crude oil and lease condensate production grows 23% between 2018 and 2050, reaching 59 million bpd in 2050, the agency said. Russia production increases by 22%, the U.S. by 11%, Canada by 126% and Brazil by 59%.
In the U.S., crude oil and lease condensate production increases from 11 million bpd in 2018 to some 14 million bpd from 2025 to 2040, “driven by hydraulic fracturing of tight resources in the U.S. Southwest,” but then falls to 12.2 million bpd by 2050, EIA said, “as development moves into less productive areas and well productivity declines.” 2050 production will still be 11% above 2018.
Russian production will grow by 2.3 million bpd, mainly from non-tight resources.
In Canada, the 5.4 million bpd increase is from oil sands, particularly toward the end of this period, “as easily accessible global resources are increasingly depleted and global oil prices gradually increase.” (In the reference case, the price of North Slope Brent is expected to reach $100 a barrel in 2050, in 2018 dollars.)
The increase in Brazil’s production by 1.5 million bpd in 2050 comes from continued development of offshore pre-salt resources.
Refining has the most growth in Asia, “where demand for finished petroleum products is greatest,” EIA said. Refinery runs remain largely unchanged in the Americas and in Europe, the Middle East and Asia refinery throughput decreases slightly.
Natural gas World consumption of natural gas increases more than 40% by 2050, with the demand growth led by non-OECD countries. The increase is 70% in non-OECD countries, EIA said, with the non-OECD share of consumption increasing from about 51% to 61%, while in OECD the increase is 17%.
The consumption growth in non-OECD countries is driven by economic growth and expanded use in the electric power generation and industrial sectors.
Natural gas production is led by the Middle East, the U.S., Russia and non-OECD Asia.
“The United States remains the world’s largest natural gas producer throughout the projection period,” EIA said, with U.S. gas production up nearly 50% to 43 trillion cubic feet, with production expanding in the Appalachian region and in tight oil formations in and around Texas.
Middle East natural gas production increases to 37 tcf in 2050, up 15 tcf, about a 70% increase, while natural gas production in Russia increases about 40%, reaching 34 tcf in 2050, with most of the increase exported to Asia and Europe.
Canada continues to produce relatively large amounts, reaching 6 tcf in 2050, up nearly 20%.
Pipeline flows continue to account for most of interregional gas trade, with non-OECD and Eurasia, primarily Russia, remaining the largest net exporter of natural gas in 2050, followed by the Middle East.
“The Americas grow as a net exporter of natural gas, driven mostly by LNG shipments from the United States to countries outside the region.”
- KRISTEN NELSON
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