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EIA ups long-term U.S. growth rate prediction, increasing engery demand A year ago, Energy Information Administration based demand on 2.1 percent U.S. growth through 2020; new estimate based on average 3 percent growth Petroleum News Alaska
Long-term U.S. economic growth is expected to average 3 percent per year through 2020, increasing projected U.S. energy demand from 96 quadrillion Btu in 1999 to 127 quadrillion Btu in 2020, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration said Nov. 28.
The EIA released the reference case forecasts of its Annual Energy Outlook 2001 and said that while long-term economic growth was estimated at 2.1 percent through 2020 last year, its new forecast is based on 3 percent annual growth.
While part of the upward revision is due to definitional changes in the National Income and Product Accounts, the agency said this year’s projections also reflect a more optimistic view of long-run economic growth in the United States. Oil prices to fall in 2001 World oil prices, which increased in both 1999 and 2000, are projected to begin falling in 2001, the EIA said. Natural gas prices also increased in 2000, and are expected to decline within two years.
“In the longer term, technology improvements in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas are expected to moderate price increases even as demand for these fuels grows,” the EIA said.
World oil prices are expected to reach $22.41 per barrel (1999 dollars) in 2020, the agency said, similar to its projection last year.
The average wellhead price of natural gas is expected to reach $3.13 per thousand cubic feet (1999 dollars) in 2020, 10 percent higher than forecast last year due to higher expected demand for natural gas over the coming decades, primarily for electricity generation, the agency said. Net imports to increase Total natural gas demand is projected to increase by 62 percent between 1999 and 2020, from 21.4 trillion cubic feet to 34.7 trillion cubic feet. Natural gas demand for electricity generation is expected to triple over that period, as 89 percent of the generation capacity built over the next two decades is expected to be gas-fired units.
Net petroleum imports are projected to increase, providing 64 percent of U.S. demand in 2020, up from 51 percent in 1999. Growth in petroleum demand is led by transportation, where efficiency improvements are more than offset by growing travel demand.
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