FirstEnergy raises 2003 Canada well count to 21,000

Gary Park

Petroleum News Calgary correspondent

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers expects 19,600 well completions this year, one of the lower-end forecasts, while investment dealer FirstEnergy Capital has made the most bullish prediction of 21,000 wells.

Other previously reported targets include the Petroleum Services Association of Canada’s 20,400 wells and the Canadian Oilwell Drilling Contractors Association’s 19,423 tally.

All are agreed that there will be a tapering off in 2004, ranging from PSAC’s 18,965, CAPP’s 18,500, FirstEnergy’s 18,200 and CAODC’s 18,023.

CAPP said it expects production this year to average 2.7 million barrels per day of oil and total 6.3 trillion cubic feet of gas, with exports accounting for 1.7 million bpd and 3.7 tcf.

Payments to governments are expected to reach a new high of greater than C$16 billion, compared with C$11 billion in 2002 and C$15.6 billion in 2001. CAPP is counting on industry investments for the year of C$28 billion.

FirstEnergy predicted cold winters will keep gas prices in the range of US$4.50-$4.75 per thousand cubic feet, while Peters & Co. believes next year’s capital budgets will be based on US$26 per barrel WTI and US$4.50 per million British thermal units for NYMEX gas.

Miles Lich, an analyst at Peters, said E&P companies will spend 100 percent of their cash flow in 2004, compared with about 79 percent this year.