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B.C. offshore hopes dim for 2010 Shell Canada predicts 12-year lag from drilling to production Gary Park Petroleum News Calgary correspondent
British Columbia Premier Gordon Campbell’s dream of lighting the torch at the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics with natural gas from his province’s offshore is starting to splutter.
While environmentalists gird for battle, a senior executive with Shell Canada has predicted there will be 12 years between the start of exploration and actual production.
Marcel Hamonic, Shell Canada’s manager of northern exploration, said the geological data gathered in the 1960s and 1970s before bans were imposed on drilling are poor in quality and “very difficult to interpret with any degree of confidence.”
“Contrary to the beliefs of some, there have been no discoveries of hydrocarbons in the Queen Charlotte Basin,” he said. However, he told a federally appointed science review panel that there is reason to believe the offshore has significant reserves.
The Geological Survey of Canada has estimated potential reserves of 9.8 billion barrels of oil and 25.9 trillion cubic feet of gas, of which 25 percent of the oil and 75 percent of the gas are considered recoverable using conventional primary extraction methods, said Peter Hannigan of the survey. Just eight offshore exploration wells drilled Those rough estimates are based on just eight exploratory offshore wells and seismic surveys using largely unsophisticated methods.
If Hamonic’s estimate of 12 years from the start of drilling to a commercial start-up is accurate, the soonest the offshore could come on stream would be 2017, based on assumptions that the Canadian government has little prospect of lifting its moratorium before 2005.
The opening round of the science panel’s hearings Oct. 15-17 was concentrated mostly on the chances of finding oil and gas in commercial quantities, along with the E&P risks. A further round on Oct. 28-30 will delve into the ecology of the basin and an Oct. 31 session is scheduled with First Nations.
The panel is charged with identifying gaps in scientific information around offshore drilling and presenting its findings by Jan. 31 to federal Natural Resources Minister Herb Dhaliwal, who is as eager as Campbell to see the offshore developed.
But federal Environment Minister David Anderson is equally skeptical, noting that “Californians and Floridians seem to believe that a moratorium on drilling (their offshore regions) is a good thing. Here in B.C. there are proposals to lift the moratorium. Have they got it right or have we got it right?” Critics say too little time allowed Critics of the science review process argue the panel has been given too little time to complete a thorough report and has allowed only 10 days for interested parties to prepare briefs.
“Ten days is completely inadequate for examining such a complex and important issue,” said Otto Langer, director of marine conservation for the Vancouver-based David Suzuki Foundation.
Even after the science panel reports a second panel, headed by former National Energy Board chairman Roland Priddle, will hold lengthy public hearings on the Queen Charlotte file.
Meanwhile, the key leaseholders — Shell, Chevron Canada Resources, Petro-Canada and ExxonMobil — have stepped back from the looming clash with environmentalists and aboriginals, saying they have no interest in exploring until the outstanding issues are settled.
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