|
Revenue forecast up $1 billion from fall State projected to collect some $9.9 billion in unrestricted revenue this fiscal year, driven by higher than forecast oil prices Kristen Nelson Petroleum News
The State of Alaska is expected to collect approximately $9.9 billion in unrestricted revenue in fiscal year 2012, which ends in June, and $8.4 billion in FY 2013, the Department of Revenue said April 6 in its spring revenue forecast.
Revenue Commissioner Bryan Butcher said in a statement that while higher-than-expected crude oil prices provided the strong revenue outlook, “the long-term health of the state’s finances and Alaska’s economy depends on stemming the continuing decline in North Slope oil production.”
The department said revenue from oil and gas production is expected to provide more than 90 percent of the state’s unrestricted revenue through FY 2021.
The fall revenue forecast, released in December, was for $8.9 billion in unrestricted revenue this fiscal year and $8.2 billion in FY 2013.
The spring forecast for Alaska North Slope crude oil prices is $114.59 per barrel for this fiscal year, compared to $109.33 in the fall forecast, and $110.44 per barrel for FY 2013, compared to $109.47 in the fall forecast.
The price forecast The forecast for the ANS crude oil price on the West Coast starts with the West Texas Intermediate price.
For this fiscal year, the department said, it used nine months of actual prices and three months of Nymex futures as of March 7, for a WTI average of $97.36. For FY 2013, the department used a blend of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s March 2012 forecast, the Nymex as of March 7, the department’s fall 2012 forecasting session and average Bloomberg analysts’ forecasts as of March 7 for a WTI annual average of $101.66.
ANS is forecast to trade at $17.23 above WTI for this fiscal year and $8.78 above WTI for FY 2013; adding on that differential produces the FY 2012 forecast of $114.59 and the FY 2013 forecast of $110.44.
The state’s unrestricted oil revenue for this year is forecast at $9.163 billion, compared to an actual of $7.049 billion in FY 2011. The forecast for FY 2013 is $7.7 billion. Unrestricted oil revenues forecast for this fiscal year include property tax ($91.7 million), corporate petroleum income tax ($552.8 million), production tax ($6.386 billion) and royalties, including bonuses, rents and interests ($2.133 billion).
Restricted oil revenues add almost another billion dollars and include royalties going to the permanent and school funds ($947 million), tax settlements to the constitutional budget reserve fund ($27.6 million) and royalties, rents and bonuses from the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska of $5 million, for a total of $980 million, and a total for unrestricted and restricted oil revenue of $10.143 billion. All other revenue, unrestricted and restricted, is forecast at $1.02 billion for this fiscal year.
The state also expects $3.127 billion in federal revenue (all restricted) and $154.4 million in unrestricted and $3.316 billion in restricted income revenue.
Total unrestricted revenue is projected at $9.870 billion and restricted revenue at $7.887 billion, a total of $17.757 billion.
Production Alaska North Slope production is forecast at 580,000 barrels per day for this fiscal year, compared to actual production of 599,000 bpd in FY 2011. Continuing production decline is forecast, with production falling below half a million barrels a day in FY 2020 at 493,000 bpd.
Revenue said its FY 2012 production forecast represents a 3 percent decline from FY 2011, with another 3 percent decline projected for FY 2013. The decline from currently producing sectors is projected at 7 percent this fiscal year and 12 percent in FY 2013.
The department is forecasting a North Slope production decline at an annual rate of 3 percent this decade, with currently producing sectors forecast to decline at an annual average of 8 percent.
It is forecasting North Slope oil field investment to increase slightly this fiscal year, at $5.2 billion, compared to $4.931 billion in FY 2011. The FY 2011 total represents $2.614 billion in operating expenditures and $2.317 billion in capital expenditures.
The department said it expects capital investment to remain flat in FY 2012 relative to FY 2011.
“This reflects a continuing lack of capital investment in the state,” Butcher said.
Revenue forecasts $2.62 billion in opex in FY 2013 and $3.1 billion in capex, a total of $5.718 billion.
Lease expenditures per barrel of oil produced were $12 a barrel in FY 2011 for opex and $10.60 for capex; the per-barrel forecast for this fiscal year is $13.50 per barrel opex and $11 per barrel capex.
For FY 2013, opex is forecast to be $12.70 per barrel and capex $15.10 per barrel.
| 