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Providing coverage of Alaska and northern Canada's oil and gas industry
March 2015

Vol. 20, No. 10 Week of March 08, 2015

Service sector gets hammered

Canadian drillers forced to idle rigs, eliminate jobs, cut paychecks of staff, executives, pullback from some foreign operations

Gary Park

For Petroleum News

The costs of the rapid erosion of Canada’s upstream sector have landed squarely on supply and service companies, who are under extreme pressure to rebid on contracts or slash a minimum 20 percent off their orders.

Many of those companies have made it clear they will not play ball as they eliminate jobs and idle equipment, while some are hoping to ride out the storm by reducing the paychecks of executives, employees and directors, while pulling back from some frontier operations, or underperforming plays.

The result has been a sharp decrease in Canadian activity, with the traditional spring wind-up of the peak drilling season starting earlier and expected to drag on longer.

Calfrac leaves Colombia

Calfrac Well Services has taken drastic action beyond its domestic borders, leaving the South American country of Colombia entirely, rationalizing its Mexican unit, parking half of its fracturing horsepower in the United States and closing a coiled tubing operation in Pennsylvania.

“The pressure is there,” Calfrac Chief Executive Officer Fernando Aguilar told analysts. “We’ve seen people parking fleets already. We’ve seen customers asking for more ... so the market’s very competitive.”

That was a dramatic mood swing from last November, when he said horizontal well completions were expected to be strong for the balance of 2014 and into 2015, led by exploration in British Columbia to build natural gas supplies for proposed LNG projects and improving performance due to new well completion technology.

Trican cutting salaries

Trican Well Service said it is cutting salaries (by 10 percent for its full-time staff and 15 percent-18 percent for senior executives), fees and costs, while reducing its North American workforce by 600 positions to save an overall C$28 million.

The company said it has already dropped a fracturing crew in each of its Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian regions, while closing its operating base in Longview, Texas, where one fracturing crew and two cement crews had previously operated.

Calfrac and Trican both said their customers are stepping up the “intensity” of their hydraulic fracturing jobs, boosting the number of fracks in each horizontal well, and also increasing demand for more lucrative 24-hour service.

Calfrac said the number of fracking intervals it performs per well in Canada has increased 73 percent over the past year and the amount of sand injected per well has doubled.

Trinidad laying off staff

Trinidad Drilling is lying off staff and making an average pay cut of 7 percent for its remaining employees, while halving its 2015 budget to C$175 million.

“We feel that a prudent approach to the coming year is important and have chosen to lower our capital expenditure level from 2014,” said Chief Executive Officer Lyle Whitmarsh.

“We have postponed some rig upgrades until demand increases and have worked with our customers to meet our commitments while also conserving cash generated from our operations.” A Trinidad spokeswoman said she did not know how many of the company’s 3,000 employees will be laid off because an announced 20 percent reduction does not affect those who work on rigs.

The company - which operates in Canada, the United States, Mexico and Saudi Arabia - said it will “postpone upgrades previously scheduled for existing rigs and will review this decision as market conditions change throughout the year.”

It said capital items purchased for new builds and upgrades that are no longer required will be placed in capital inventory for use on its existing fleet.

At the end of February, 289 rigs were operating in Western Canada, representing 37 percent of the industry’s total fleet, the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors reported. That is down from 317 rigs operating at the same time last year.





Bottom line carries high cost

The day of reckoning is at hand for Alberta’s floundering petroleum industry, with an analysis of the province’s largest oil sands operations by Wood Mackenzie estimating as much as US$23 billion of cash flow will be wiped out over the next two years.

Based on information gathered from 32 companies, the consulting firm also forecasts that capital spending in northern Alberta’s vast bitumen region will tumble to US$17.9 billion this year.

It doubts there will be any turnaround in those forecasts even if crude oil prices rise to US$55 a barrel this year and US$65 in 2016, as some observers are predicting.

But Wood Mackenzie said the sector is still likely to add 458,000 barrels per day of new oil sands production that is due on stream in 2015 and 2016.

The firm said the anticipated slowdown in capital investment likely means peak bitumen production will not reach 4 million barrels per day until 2024 — four years behind the earlier target.

It said the operational costs for extracting bitumen are now about US$37 per barrel for thermal-recovery projects and US$40 for mining projects, adding that the average breakeven point for production for in-situ operations is US$41 and for a mine is US$47, although full-cycle breakevens can exceed US$100 for both project types.

Calgary-based investment bank Peters & Co. released similar predictions in January for production growth of 200,000-300,000 bpd over the next three to four years, raising total output to 3 million bpd by 2020, up 1 million bpd from the end of 2014.

In an updated report in January, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers targeted capital spending in the oil sands sector of C$25 billion this year, off C$8 billion from its earlier forecast, while expenditures on conventional oil would slump to C$21 billion from C$36 billion last year.

“Even if projects temporarily operate at a loss, shut-ins are not expected,” said the firm’s principal analyst Callan McMahon.

He said the projected 62 percent decline in cash flow is based on average West Texas Intermediate crude of US$55 this year and US$65 next year.

McMahon said operators may now be faced with postponing final investment decisions on new projects.

“If oil prices were to stay lower longer” it is possible those decisions could be further delayed, although a strong recovery in crude prices could also see capital allocations brought forward, he said.

Michael Hebert, a Calgary-based analyst and author of the Wood Mackenzie analysis, said the margins in Alberta’s high-cost industry “are going to be squeezed, but because of the long-life nature of the assets, producers are generally going to be forced to operate at a reduced margin or even at a loss in the short term.”

But the new production “is coming on line regardless of what the short-term price is going,” he said.

The outlook was reinforced by an Alberta government budget update for the 2014-15 fiscal year which ends March 31 which forecasts that the province’s non-renewable resource revenue will be down C$503 million, with bitumen royalties expected to drop C$644 million, partly offset by more robust returns from conventional crude earlier in the year.

The government has already warned that it faces a budget deficit of C$7 billion in the 2015-16 fiscal year.

—Gary Park


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