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BP’s 2002 world energy statistical review: Diverse oil sources keep market secure
Petroleum News Alaska
Energy markets continued to operate and supplies of oil and gas were maintained last year despite a serious economic downturn, continuing Middle East tensions and the tragedy of Sept. 11 and subsequent military action in Afghanistan, BP chief executive Lord Browne said June 18.
Browne, commenting on BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2002, said:
“If you analyze the data, you will see that the market sustained a secure flow of energy because there are diverse sources of supply.
“The U.S., for instance, imported 55 percent of its oil needs last year, but it did so from 60 different countries, no one of which accounted for more than 16 percent of the total. And that diversity can be sustained because there are now a number of major sources of supply coming on stream.”
Browne also said data in BP’s statistical review shows that the world has 40 years of oil supply and 60 years of gas. Oil provides 40 percent of the world’s energy and gas supplies 24 percent. Sources more diverse Eighteen countries increasing their oil production over the past five years by more than 100,000 barrels per day, while production has fallen in only five countries.
Gas production has become even more diverse, the review indicates: Over the same five-year period, 20 countries each increased their gas production by more than 500 million cubic feet a day. In only one country, Russia, did gas supply decline by that amount.
Worldwide energy demand grew by only 0.3 percent in 2001, review data show, with demand weakness caused primarily by global economic recession further worsened by after-effects of Sept. 11 attacks.
North American energy consumption fell by 2.4 percent, the review found, the first drop in a decade. This was offset by a 4.3 percent demand rise in China. BP also said the 1.2 percent rise in the Former Soviet Union was a third consecutive annual increase in the region. Average oil price good, but volatile Oil prices averaged $24.77 a barrel in 2001, lower than the $28.98 average price for 2000, but, BP said, significantly above the post-1986 average of around $19 a barrel.
“However, the average disguised significant price volatility — the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks had a severe negative impact on demand and oil prices, briefly bringing prices down to a low point of $16.54 in November and keeping them below $20 on average for the fourth quarter of the year,” BP said.
In production, a 2.7 percent decline in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries production was almost exactly offset by increases in non-OPEC production, primarily from Russia. Oil consumption was down marginally in 2001, the first decline since 1993, while gas consumption grew only 0.3 percent compared to a 4.3 percent growth in 2000.
BP said gas consumption was particularly weak in North America, with a 5 percent decline in demand in 2001. “In contrast to consumption, however, North American gas production grew by 1.6 percent as generally high prices stimulated stock rebuilding,” BP said.
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